Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於在11月1日前不會發佈 40%
在 8 月 31 日之前 25%
9 月 7 日–9 月 13 日 24%
8 月 31 日–9 月 6 日 23%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
在 8 月 31 日之前
25%
8 月 31 日–9 月 6 日
23%
9 月 7 日–9 月 13 日
24%
9 月 14 日–9 月 20 日
23%
9 月 21 日–9 月 27 日
23%
9 月 28 日至 10 月 4 日
23%
10月5日–10月11日
23%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日
22%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日
22%
10 月 26 日至 11 月 1 日
23%
在11月1日前不會發佈
55%
在11月1日前不會發佈 40%
在 8 月 31 日之前 25%
9 月 7 日–9 月 13 日 24%
8 月 31 日–9 月 6 日 23%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
在 8 月 31 日之前
$0 交易量
25%
8 月 31 日–9 月 6 日
$0 交易量
23%
9 月 7 日–9 月 13 日
$0 交易量
24%
9 月 14 日–9 月 20 日
$0 交易量
23%
9 月 21 日–9 月 27 日
$0 交易量
23%
9 月 28 日至 10 月 4 日
$0 交易量
23%
10月5日–10月11日
$0 交易量
23%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日
$0 交易量
22%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日
$0 交易量
22%
10 月 26 日至 11 月 1 日
$0 交易量
23%
在11月1日前不會發佈
$47 交易量
55%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
交易量
$47結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$47結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions