Recent outages and degraded performance episodes for OpenAI’s Codex coding agent have driven the elevated 82.5% market-implied odds of another incident before year-end. A full 56-minute outage on September 25 affected the web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension, prompting an immediate usage-limit reset for paid users, followed by a 5-hour-plus degraded period on September 29 and shorter dot-related issues on October 7. These events align with the service’s rapid scaling, high concurrent demand, and history of capacity or internal-component failures that typically resolve within hours but recur under load. Traders view the pattern as evidence of persistent stability risks through the remainder of 2026 despite current operational status.