Trump’s mid-September announcement of plans for a new “AI Force” and AI czar—following David Sacks’ earlier exit—has driven recent trader sentiment, with fresh momentum from the president ruling out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on September 25 and publicly praising Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton as a strong contender. Clayton leads at 27.5% implied probability, ahead of other administration insiders such as OSTP Director Michael Kratsios, OPM Director Scott Kupor, National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross, and former White House AI advisor Sriram Krishnan, all of whom bring relevant policy, cyber, or venture backgrounds aligned with the administration’s light-touch regulatory approach. The crowded field and Trump’s history of surprising picks keep probabilities fragmented and the “no czar by year-end” outcome at 13.8%, underscoring uncertainty ahead of an expected announcement.