**Elevated geopolitical risk from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, now in its eighth month, continues to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with AIS-visible traffic averaging roughly 4–5 vessels per day against a pre-crisis baseline near 85.** This restricted regime—marked by Iranian permit requirements, a US naval blockade, dual routing options, residual mines, and periodic strikes on vessels—has lifted Brent crude to around $102 per barrel while pushing war-risk insurance premiums to 15–40 times peacetime levels. Dark-ship activity, ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, and selective facilitation have allowed limited oil flows (recent estimates 9–13 million barrels per day versus a normal ~20 million), supporting energy-market pricing but keeping charter rates and volatility elevated. Trader sentiment reflects the balance between persistent blockade enforcement and incremental diplomatic efforts via Qatar, with October resolution hinging on any near-term easing or escalation ahead of the October 31 deadline.