Ongoing Iranian strikes on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, including multiple projectile attacks causing engine damage, fires, and crew injuries from late September through October 5, 2026, sustain elevated probabilities for daily targeting events. Oil flows through the chokepoint have rebounded toward 13 million barrels per day or roughly 80% of pre-war levels despite the violence, supporting Brent crude near $125 per barrel while war-risk insurance premiums remain at 30 times normal. AIS-visible traffic stays at about 10% of baseline amid IRGC permit requirements and U.S. naval coordination, with UKMTO and JMIC logging near-daily incidents that directly influence trader sentiment on resolution thresholds for specific dates.