Trader consensus favors no U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at 72.5%, reflecting de-escalation signals amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28. Recent diplomatic progress, including Vice President Vance's May 13 statement on advancing talks and Qatari-mediated efforts for a ceasefire memorandum addressing Iran's nuclear enrichment moratorium and sanctions relief, has eased escalation fears. U.S. Central Command's May 7 strikes eliminated Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz without committing ground troops, while a naval blockade enforces economic pressure via vessel turnarounds and oil export curbs. IRGC demands for ending the blockade remain unmet, but no major infantry deployments signal traders' assessment that air and sea operations suffice for leverage.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$28,087,155 交易量
$28,087,155 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$28,087,155 交易量
$28,087,155 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus favors no U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at 72.5%, reflecting de-escalation signals amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28. Recent diplomatic progress, including Vice President Vance's May 13 statement on advancing talks and Qatari-mediated efforts for a ceasefire memorandum addressing Iran's nuclear enrichment moratorium and sanctions relief, has eased escalation fears. U.S. Central Command's May 7 strikes eliminated Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz without committing ground troops, while a naval blockade enforces economic pressure via vessel turnarounds and oil export curbs. IRGC demands for ending the blockade remain unmet, but no major infantry deployments signal traders' assessment that air and sea operations suffice for leverage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
交易量
$28,087,155結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus favors no U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at 72.5%, reflecting de-escalation signals amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28. Recent diplomatic progress, including Vice President Vance's May 13 statement on advancing talks and Qatari-mediated efforts for a ceasefire memorandum addressing Iran's nuclear enrichment moratorium and sanctions relief, has eased escalation fears. U.S. Central Command's May 7 strikes eliminated Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz without committing ground troops, while a naval blockade enforces economic pressure via vessel turnarounds and oil export curbs. IRGC demands for ending the blockade remain unmet, but no major infantry deployments signal traders' assessment that air and sea operations suffice for leverage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$28,087,155結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at 72.5%, reflecting de-escalation signals amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28. Recent diplomatic progress, including Vice President Vance's May 13 statement on advancing talks and Qatari-mediated efforts for a ceasefire memorandum addressing Iran's nuclear enrichment moratorium and sanctions relief, has eased escalation fears. U.S. Central Command's May 7 strikes eliminated Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz without committing ground troops, while a naval blockade enforces economic pressure via vessel turnarounds and oil export curbs. IRGC demands for ending the blockade remain unmet, but no major infantry deployments signal traders' assessment that air and sea operations suffice for leverage.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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