Recent indirect talks via Qatari mediators at the UN General Assembly in late September 2026 centered on Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for lifting the U.S. naval blockade, unfreezing assets, and easing sanctions, with follow-on nuclear discussions. President Trump rejected the offer publicly while signaling openness to further engagement ahead of U.S. midterms, amid U.S. troop and carrier deployments to the region and intermittent airstrikes tied to shipping incidents. The seven-month conflict, launched with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February, has featured economic pressure, naval enforcement, and air operations rather than ground commitments. Traders appear to view these dynamics, plus the absence of stated invasion plans or large-scale force posture changes, as sustaining the high probability against a U.S. invasion before 2027.