Ongoing tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation continue to shape assessments of Israeli airspace policy. Partial reopening occurred in March with strict limits on commercial flights at Ben Gurion Airport, yet restrictions persist amid Hezbollah activity and Iranian proxy threats. Recent developments include a May 4 high-alert status at the airport, extended EASA advisories recommending avoidance through late May, and Lufthansa Group's announced gradual resumption of services in June. These factors, alongside IDF operations in southern Lebanon, inform trader focus on whether a broad closure—defined as widespread suspension of commercial aviation—will occur by the resolution date amid fragile regional stability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$858,461 交易量
2026-05-31
May 31
30%
6月30日
41%
$858,461 交易量
May 31
$357,317 交易量
30%
6月30日
$5,895 交易量
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation continue to shape assessments of Israeli airspace policy. Partial reopening occurred in March with strict limits on commercial flights at Ben Gurion Airport, yet restrictions persist amid Hezbollah activity and Iranian proxy threats. Recent developments include a May 4 high-alert status at the airport, extended EASA advisories recommending avoidance through late May, and Lufthansa Group's announced gradual resumption of services in June. These factors, alongside IDF operations in southern Lebanon, inform trader focus on whether a broad closure—defined as widespread suspension of commercial aviation—will occur by the resolution date amid fragile regional stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
交易量
$858,461結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation continue to shape assessments of Israeli airspace policy. Partial reopening occurred in March with strict limits on commercial flights at Ben Gurion Airport, yet restrictions persist amid Hezbollah activity and Iranian proxy threats. Recent developments include a May 4 high-alert status at the airport, extended EASA advisories recommending avoidance through late May, and Lufthansa Group's announced gradual resumption of services in June. These factors, alongside IDF operations in southern Lebanon, inform trader focus on whether a broad closure—defined as widespread suspension of commercial aviation—will occur by the resolution date amid fragile regional stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$858,461結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation continue to shape assessments of Israeli airspace policy. Partial reopening occurred in March with strict limits on commercial flights at Ben Gurion Airport, yet restrictions persist amid Hezbollah activity and Iranian proxy threats. Recent developments include a May 4 high-alert status at the airport, extended EASA advisories recommending avoidance through late May, and Lufthansa Group's announced gradual resumption of services in June. These factors, alongside IDF operations in southern Lebanon, inform trader focus on whether a broad closure—defined as widespread suspension of commercial aviation—will occur by the resolution date amid fragile regional stability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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