Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv FIR open since multiple temporary closures during the February–July 2026 phase of the US-Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses. The July breakdown of the April ceasefire, marked by renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian actions against commercial vessels, has sustained elevated regional risks, prompting EASA advisories for operators to account for potential short-notice disruptions from Iranian proxies including Hezbollah. Aviation regulators continue to flag threats of missile or drone activity that could trigger brief or extended closures, while most major international carriers have yet to resume full service to Ben Gurion Airport. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, proxy force postures, and any new military exchanges within the resolution window for indications of further escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$27,139,309 交易量
2026-07-15
8月31日
4%
$27,139,309 交易量
8月31日
$1,107,428 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv FIR open since multiple temporary closures during the February–July 2026 phase of the US-Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses. The July breakdown of the April ceasefire, marked by renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian actions against commercial vessels, has sustained elevated regional risks, prompting EASA advisories for operators to account for potential short-notice disruptions from Iranian proxies including Hezbollah. Aviation regulators continue to flag threats of missile or drone activity that could trigger brief or extended closures, while most major international carriers have yet to resume full service to Ben Gurion Airport. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, proxy force postures, and any new military exchanges within the resolution window for indications of further escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
交易量
$27,139,309結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv FIR open since multiple temporary closures during the February–July 2026 phase of the US-Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses. The July breakdown of the April ceasefire, marked by renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian actions against commercial vessels, has sustained elevated regional risks, prompting EASA advisories for operators to account for potential short-notice disruptions from Iranian proxies including Hezbollah. Aviation regulators continue to flag threats of missile or drone activity that could trigger brief or extended closures, while most major international carriers have yet to resume full service to Ben Gurion Airport. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, proxy force postures, and any new military exchanges within the resolution window for indications of further escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$27,139,309結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv FIR open since multiple temporary closures during the February–July 2026 phase of the US-Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses. The July breakdown of the April ceasefire, marked by renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian actions against commercial vessels, has sustained elevated regional risks, prompting EASA advisories for operators to account for potential short-notice disruptions from Iranian proxies including Hezbollah. Aviation regulators continue to flag threats of missile or drone activity that could trigger brief or extended closures, while most major international carriers have yet to resume full service to Ben Gurion Airport. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, proxy force postures, and any new military exchanges within the resolution window for indications of further escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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