Iran’s refusal to grant IAEA inspectors access to its enrichment facilities since the 2025 strikes, combined with the July 2026 collapse of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, has left core disputes over uranium stockpiles and enrichment limits unresolved. The IAEA’s September 2026 report confirmed ongoing uncertainty about the location and status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium and whether enrichment activities have resumed. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment for civilian purposes while rejecting full down-blending or permanent caps demanded by the United States, with no diplomatic progress reported since the 60-day negotiation window expired. These verification gaps and entrenched positions sustain trader expectations that Tehran will not commit to ending enrichment by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
13% 機率
$1,757,879 交易量
$1,757,879 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 機率
$1,757,879 交易量
$1,757,879 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s refusal to grant IAEA inspectors access to its enrichment facilities since the 2025 strikes, combined with the July 2026 collapse of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, has left core disputes over uranium stockpiles and enrichment limits unresolved. The IAEA’s September 2026 report confirmed ongoing uncertainty about the location and status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium and whether enrichment activities have resumed. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment for civilian purposes while rejecting full down-blending or permanent caps demanded by the United States, with no diplomatic progress reported since the 60-day negotiation window expired. These verification gaps and entrenched positions sustain trader expectations that Tehran will not commit to ending enrichment by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
交易量
$1,757,879結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s refusal to grant IAEA inspectors access to its enrichment facilities since the 2025 strikes, combined with the July 2026 collapse of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, has left core disputes over uranium stockpiles and enrichment limits unresolved. The IAEA’s September 2026 report confirmed ongoing uncertainty about the location and status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium and whether enrichment activities have resumed. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment for civilian purposes while rejecting full down-blending or permanent caps demanded by the United States, with no diplomatic progress reported since the 60-day negotiation window expired. These verification gaps and entrenched positions sustain trader expectations that Tehran will not commit to ending enrichment by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,757,879結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETIran’s refusal to grant IAEA inspectors access to its enrichment facilities since the 2025 strikes, combined with the July 2026 collapse of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, has left core disputes over uranium stockpiles and enrichment limits unresolved. The IAEA’s September 2026 report confirmed ongoing uncertainty about the location and status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium and whether enrichment activities have resumed. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment for civilian purposes while rejecting full down-blending or permanent caps demanded by the United States, with no diplomatic progress reported since the 60-day negotiation window expired. These verification gaps and entrenched positions sustain trader expectations that Tehran will not commit to ending enrichment by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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