Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman following 2025 strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced a framework agreement and reports of Iranian willingness to dispose of or downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision. Recent statements from U.S. officials highlight progress on stockpile disposition and verification within a 60-day technical window, though enrichment limits remain a core dispute, with Tehran asserting its right to limited civilian enrichment and rejecting permanent zero-enrichment demands. These diplomatic steps, including ceasefire formalization and sanctions relief discussions, underpin traders' assessment of a 66% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by year-end, while structural barriers like Supreme Leader directives and verification gaps sustain uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$1,220,069 交易量
$1,220,069 交易量
2026-12-31
$1,220,069 交易量
$1,220,069 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman following 2025 strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced a framework agreement and reports of Iranian willingness to dispose of or downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision. Recent statements from U.S. officials highlight progress on stockpile disposition and verification within a 60-day technical window, though enrichment limits remain a core dispute, with Tehran asserting its right to limited civilian enrichment and rejecting permanent zero-enrichment demands. These diplomatic steps, including ceasefire formalization and sanctions relief discussions, underpin traders' assessment of a 66% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by year-end, while structural barriers like Supreme Leader directives and verification gaps sustain uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
交易量
$1,220,069結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman following 2025 strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced a framework agreement and reports of Iranian willingness to dispose of or downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision. Recent statements from U.S. officials highlight progress on stockpile disposition and verification within a 60-day technical window, though enrichment limits remain a core dispute, with Tehran asserting its right to limited civilian enrichment and rejecting permanent zero-enrichment demands. These diplomatic steps, including ceasefire formalization and sanctions relief discussions, underpin traders' assessment of a 66% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by year-end, while structural barriers like Supreme Leader directives and verification gaps sustain uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,220,069結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman following 2025 strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced a framework agreement and reports of Iranian willingness to dispose of or downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision. Recent statements from U.S. officials highlight progress on stockpile disposition and verification within a 60-day technical window, though enrichment limits remain a core dispute, with Tehran asserting its right to limited civilian enrichment and rejecting permanent zero-enrichment demands. These diplomatic steps, including ceasefire formalization and sanctions relief discussions, underpin traders' assessment of a 66% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by year-end, while structural barriers like Supreme Leader directives and verification gaps sustain uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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