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Geopolitics·Nuclear

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

icon for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Geopolitics·Nuclear

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

12月 31

12月 31

11% 機率
Polymarket

$192,097 交易量

11% 機率
Polymarket

$192,097 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s continued participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, including submission of multiple working papers, alongside ongoing bilateral nuclear negotiations with the United States, has anchored trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. Repeated Iranian parliamentary and foreign ministry statements since mid-2025 have framed potential exit as a response to strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure, yet no bill has advanced to formal passage or implementation. Recent reports of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding and planned 60-day talks on enrichment limits and verification instead signal diplomatic engagement that preserves NPT obligations in the near term. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical pattern of threats without follow-through, underpin the 88% implied probability that Iran will remain a state party through the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$192,097
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s continued participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, including submission of multiple working papers, alongside ongoing bilateral nuclear negotiations with the United States, has anchored trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. Repeated Iranian parliamentary and foreign ministry statements since mid-2025 have framed potential exit as a response to strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure, yet no bill has advanced to formal passage or implementation. Recent reports of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding and planned 60-day talks on enrichment limits and verification instead signal diplomatic engagement that preserves NPT obligations in the near term. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical pattern of threats without follow-through, underpin the 88% implied probability that Iran will remain a state party through the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$192,097
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 11% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 11¢, the market collectively assigns a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" has generated $192.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" is 11% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.