U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 inflicted substantial damage on Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying or destroying much of the highly enriched uranium stockpile and disrupting weaponization-related sites. IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence indicate no resumption of enrichment activities, with a June 2026 memorandum of understanding including Iran's reaffirmation against pursuing nuclear weapons. These setbacks, compounded by the death of the prior supreme leader, have extended the timeline for any potential breakthrough well beyond 2027 according to expert analysis. Trader consensus at 95.5% on "No" reflects this degraded capacity and heightened detection risks. Potential shifts could arise from undetected underground rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain or changes in leadership priorities, though verifiable progress remains limited by ongoing monitoring and sanctions.