**Recent US and Israeli strikes have substantially damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and related sites, reducing operational centrifuge capacity and leaving the status of much of its pre-2025 stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent unverified.** The IAEA has lacked access to bombed locations since the conflict escalated, preventing confirmation of remaining materials or any resumed high-level enrichment activities. Satellite imagery shows reconstruction efforts at some damaged complexes, yet these remain limited and subject to potential further disruption. Diplomatic channels between Tehran and Washington have stalled over demands for uranium stockpile reductions or transfers, with Iran maintaining that enrichment serves civilian purposes and rejecting external removal of materials. IAEA referrals to the UN Security Council underscore ongoing safeguards concerns without evidence of a coordinated weapons program advancing to completion. Traders assign a 96.4 percent probability to "No" largely because the remaining window to the end of 2026 is brief, and rebuilding sufficient enrichment infrastructure for weapons-grade material while achieving weaponization faces significant technical and political barriers. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected acceleration of hidden facilities or a rapid policy shift by Iranian leadership amid heightened tensions, though such developments would require overcoming extensive physical damage and monitoring gaps in a compressed timeframe.