Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025, followed by additional strikes into 2026, severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, eliminating active centrifuge capacity and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles buried or inaccessible. IAEA inspectors lost continuity of knowledge and withdrew from sensitive sites, while official statements confirm Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding explicitly reaffirms Tehran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, amid ongoing diplomatic channels and rebuilding efforts focused on hardened or new underground locations that remain years from operational enrichment. These verified setbacks, combined with monitoring by U.S. intelligence and the IAEA, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 faces substantial structural and political barriers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$235,602 交易量
$235,602 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$235,602 交易量
$235,602 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025, followed by additional strikes into 2026, severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, eliminating active centrifuge capacity and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles buried or inaccessible. IAEA inspectors lost continuity of knowledge and withdrew from sensitive sites, while official statements confirm Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding explicitly reaffirms Tehran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, amid ongoing diplomatic channels and rebuilding efforts focused on hardened or new underground locations that remain years from operational enrichment. These verified setbacks, combined with monitoring by U.S. intelligence and the IAEA, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 faces substantial structural and political barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$235,602結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025, followed by additional strikes into 2026, severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, eliminating active centrifuge capacity and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles buried or inaccessible. IAEA inspectors lost continuity of knowledge and withdrew from sensitive sites, while official statements confirm Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding explicitly reaffirms Tehran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, amid ongoing diplomatic channels and rebuilding efforts focused on hardened or new underground locations that remain years from operational enrichment. These verified setbacks, combined with monitoring by U.S. intelligence and the IAEA, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 faces substantial structural and political barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$235,602結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025, followed by additional strikes into 2026, severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, eliminating active centrifuge capacity and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles buried or inaccessible. IAEA inspectors lost continuity of knowledge and withdrew from sensitive sites, while official statements confirm Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding explicitly reaffirms Tehran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, amid ongoing diplomatic channels and rebuilding efforts focused on hardened or new underground locations that remain years from operational enrichment. These verified setbacks, combined with monitoring by U.S. intelligence and the IAEA, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 faces substantial structural and political barriers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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