US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, leaving enrichment capacity largely inoperable and eliminating near-term pathways to weaponization or testing. The IAEA has had no access to affected facilities since mid-2025, rendering it unable to verify the status of Iran's pre-strike stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, some of which may remain in Isfahan tunnels. A September 2026 IAEA Board resolution referred Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council amid stalled US-Iran talks on verification and enrichment limits. Iran continues to reject demands to halt enrichment or transfer material, while satellite imagery shows reconstruction at secondary sites but no confirmed weaponization activity. These factors sustain trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.