US intelligence assessments released May 5 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline—roughly one year to a weapon—remains unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes targeting enrichment sites like Natanz and Fordow during the February-April 2026 conflict, with no evidence of weaponization advances or testing preparations. IAEA safeguards reports through late April detected no radiation spikes or undeclared nuclear activities at monitored facilities. A fragile ceasefire persists amid Trump administration talks for a new nuclear deal, bolstering trader consensus at 91.5% "No" for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Escalation, undetected covert progress, or regime shifts could alter this outlook, though verified developments indicate significant barriers to testing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$191,214 交易量
$191,214 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$191,214 交易量
$191,214 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released May 5 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline—roughly one year to a weapon—remains unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes targeting enrichment sites like Natanz and Fordow during the February-April 2026 conflict, with no evidence of weaponization advances or testing preparations. IAEA safeguards reports through late April detected no radiation spikes or undeclared nuclear activities at monitored facilities. A fragile ceasefire persists amid Trump administration talks for a new nuclear deal, bolstering trader consensus at 91.5% "No" for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Escalation, undetected covert progress, or regime shifts could alter this outlook, though verified developments indicate significant barriers to testing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$191,214結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released May 5 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline—roughly one year to a weapon—remains unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes targeting enrichment sites like Natanz and Fordow during the February-April 2026 conflict, with no evidence of weaponization advances or testing preparations. IAEA safeguards reports through late April detected no radiation spikes or undeclared nuclear activities at monitored facilities. A fragile ceasefire persists amid Trump administration talks for a new nuclear deal, bolstering trader consensus at 91.5% "No" for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Escalation, undetected covert progress, or regime shifts could alter this outlook, though verified developments indicate significant barriers to testing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$191,214結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released May 5 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline—roughly one year to a weapon—remains unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes targeting enrichment sites like Natanz and Fordow during the February-April 2026 conflict, with no evidence of weaponization advances or testing preparations. IAEA safeguards reports through late April detected no radiation spikes or undeclared nuclear activities at monitored facilities. A fragile ceasefire persists amid Trump administration talks for a new nuclear deal, bolstering trader consensus at 91.5% "No" for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Escalation, undetected covert progress, or regime shifts could alter this outlook, though verified developments indicate significant barriers to testing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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