Trader consensus prices "No" invasion at 92.5% for China-Taiwan by end-2026, driven by the absence of verifiable mobilization signals amid high economic and military costs, reinforced by U.S. deterrence and routine PLA activities in the Taiwan Strait described by Beijing as responses to Taipei's independence moves. Recent Trump-Xi summit (May 13-14) featured Xi's stark warnings on U.S. arms sales risking conflict, yet yielded constructive dialogue tones praised by the IMF for reducing tensions, with Taiwan thanking Washington for support ahead of further talks. U.S. intelligence continues assessing no near-term invasion plans, while Taiwan's delayed defense budget raises concerns but shows no aggressive Chinese escalation. Late-breaking diplomatic breakdowns or arms surges could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$23,356,221 交易量
$23,356,221 交易量
是
$23,356,221 交易量
$23,356,221 交易量
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices "No" invasion at 92.5% for China-Taiwan by end-2026, driven by the absence of verifiable mobilization signals amid high economic and military costs, reinforced by U.S. deterrence and routine PLA activities in the Taiwan Strait described by Beijing as responses to Taipei's independence moves. Recent Trump-Xi summit (May 13-14) featured Xi's stark warnings on U.S. arms sales risking conflict, yet yielded constructive dialogue tones praised by the IMF for reducing tensions, with Taiwan thanking Washington for support ahead of further talks. U.S. intelligence continues assessing no near-term invasion plans, while Taiwan's delayed defense budget raises concerns but shows no aggressive Chinese escalation. Late-breaking diplomatic breakdowns or arms surges could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions