Traders assign a 96.2% probability that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting structural barriers including incomplete amphibious lift capacity, vulnerability of landing forces to asymmetric defenses, and the severe economic costs from disrupted semiconductor supply chains plus potential multilateral sanctions. Recent cross-strait military exercises have remained below thresholds that signal imminent action, while diplomatic channels and U.S. security assurances continue to reinforce deterrence without triggering escalation. No major military or diplomatic shifts in the past 30 days have altered this baseline. Realistic scenarios that could still move odds include an abrupt leadership decision amid internal pressures, a major miscalculation during routine drills, or sudden changes in U.S. policy commitments that reduce perceived risks for Beijing.