NATO has avoided any armed attack on member territory that would activate collective defense obligations under Article 5, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains confined without spillover across alliance borders. Recent NATO summits and eastern flank reinforcements, including expanded forward deployments and universal compliance with 2% GDP defense spending targets, have strengthened deterrence while addressing hybrid incidents such as drone incursions through Article 4 consultations rather than full invocation. These steps, combined with ongoing diplomatic efforts to manage escalation risks and a consensus against extending guarantees to non-members, underpin trader expectations that no qualifying trigger will occur before 2027 despite persistent regional tensions.