Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.7% for NATO countries clashing militarily before 2027, reflecting the alliance's enduring institutional safeguards and diplomatic mechanisms that have prevented intra-member armed conflict since its founding in 1949. Recent strains, including U.S. threats in April 2026 to suspend Spain from NATO over allies' refusal to support operations in the Iran conflict—prompting NATO's clarification of no expulsion provisions—and simmering Greece-Turkey rhetoric over Aegean territorial waters and air defense, have remained confined to verbal sparring and political maneuvering without escalation to force. Ongoing external pressures like Russia's Ukraine war further unify members against common threats, outweighing internal frictions; late-breaking escalations in flashpoints or U.S. unilateral actions could still shift odds, though historical precedents favor restraint through summits and consultations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$12,739 交易量
$12,739 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$12,739 交易量
$12,739 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.7% for NATO countries clashing militarily before 2027, reflecting the alliance's enduring institutional safeguards and diplomatic mechanisms that have prevented intra-member armed conflict since its founding in 1949. Recent strains, including U.S. threats in April 2026 to suspend Spain from NATO over allies' refusal to support operations in the Iran conflict—prompting NATO's clarification of no expulsion provisions—and simmering Greece-Turkey rhetoric over Aegean territorial waters and air defense, have remained confined to verbal sparring and political maneuvering without escalation to force. Ongoing external pressures like Russia's Ukraine war further unify members against common threats, outweighing internal frictions; late-breaking escalations in flashpoints or U.S. unilateral actions could still shift odds, though historical precedents favor restraint through summits and consultations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 23, 2026, 12:49 PM ET
交易量
$12,739結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 23, 2026, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.7% for NATO countries clashing militarily before 2027, reflecting the alliance's enduring institutional safeguards and diplomatic mechanisms that have prevented intra-member armed conflict since its founding in 1949. Recent strains, including U.S. threats in April 2026 to suspend Spain from NATO over allies' refusal to support operations in the Iran conflict—prompting NATO's clarification of no expulsion provisions—and simmering Greece-Turkey rhetoric over Aegean territorial waters and air defense, have remained confined to verbal sparring and political maneuvering without escalation to force. Ongoing external pressures like Russia's Ukraine war further unify members against common threats, outweighing internal frictions; late-breaking escalations in flashpoints or U.S. unilateral actions could still shift odds, though historical precedents favor restraint through summits and consultations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$12,739結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 23, 2026, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.7% for NATO countries clashing militarily before 2027, reflecting the alliance's enduring institutional safeguards and diplomatic mechanisms that have prevented intra-member armed conflict since its founding in 1949. Recent strains, including U.S. threats in April 2026 to suspend Spain from NATO over allies' refusal to support operations in the Iran conflict—prompting NATO's clarification of no expulsion provisions—and simmering Greece-Turkey rhetoric over Aegean territorial waters and air defense, have remained confined to verbal sparring and political maneuvering without escalation to force. Ongoing external pressures like Russia's Ukraine war further unify members against common threats, outweighing internal frictions; late-breaking escalations in flashpoints or U.S. unilateral actions could still shift odds, though historical precedents favor restraint through summits and consultations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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