Traders assign a 95.8% probability that the United States and China will avoid a direct military clash through the end of 2026 due to the short remaining timeframe, absence of visible large-scale amphibious or logistical mobilization by the PLA, and continued bilateral diplomatic channels. Recent developments include ongoing Taiwan Strait and South China Sea drills, U.S.-Philippines maritime exercises, and high-level meetings such as the planned Trump-Xi summit that emphasize deconfliction and crisis management mechanisms over escalation. Both sides maintain military-to-military communications focused on preventing miscalculation while pursuing competition short of open conflict. A clash remains unlikely without unprecedented rapid shifts in force posture or leadership decisions before year-end, though unintended incidents during exercises or spillover from third-party confrontations could still alter the trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$194,575 交易量
$194,575 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$194,575 交易量
$194,575 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.8% probability that the United States and China will avoid a direct military clash through the end of 2026 due to the short remaining timeframe, absence of visible large-scale amphibious or logistical mobilization by the PLA, and continued bilateral diplomatic channels. Recent developments include ongoing Taiwan Strait and South China Sea drills, U.S.-Philippines maritime exercises, and high-level meetings such as the planned Trump-Xi summit that emphasize deconfliction and crisis management mechanisms over escalation. Both sides maintain military-to-military communications focused on preventing miscalculation while pursuing competition short of open conflict. A clash remains unlikely without unprecedented rapid shifts in force posture or leadership decisions before year-end, though unintended incidents during exercises or spillover from third-party confrontations could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$194,575結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.8% probability that the United States and China will avoid a direct military clash through the end of 2026 due to the short remaining timeframe, absence of visible large-scale amphibious or logistical mobilization by the PLA, and continued bilateral diplomatic channels. Recent developments include ongoing Taiwan Strait and South China Sea drills, U.S.-Philippines maritime exercises, and high-level meetings such as the planned Trump-Xi summit that emphasize deconfliction and crisis management mechanisms over escalation. Both sides maintain military-to-military communications focused on preventing miscalculation while pursuing competition short of open conflict. A clash remains unlikely without unprecedented rapid shifts in force posture or leadership decisions before year-end, though unintended incidents during exercises or spillover from third-party confrontations could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$194,575結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.8% probability that the United States and China will avoid a direct military clash through the end of 2026 due to the short remaining timeframe, absence of visible large-scale amphibious or logistical mobilization by the PLA, and continued bilateral diplomatic channels. Recent developments include ongoing Taiwan Strait and South China Sea drills, U.S.-Philippines maritime exercises, and high-level meetings such as the planned Trump-Xi summit that emphasize deconfliction and crisis management mechanisms over escalation. Both sides maintain military-to-military communications focused on preventing miscalculation while pursuing competition short of open conflict. A clash remains unlikely without unprecedented rapid shifts in force posture or leadership decisions before year-end, though unintended incidents during exercises or spillover from third-party confrontations could still alter the trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions