China’s infrequent pattern of publicly acknowledged long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the 72% implied probability that no qualifying launch will occur by year-end. The most recent such event was a July 6 submarine-launched intercontinental-range missile test into the South Pacific, described by Beijing as routine and carrying a dummy warhead. Subsequent months have seen no comparable tests, with September attention focused on North Korean short-range launches and routine Chinese space activity instead. Traders weigh this historical cadence, the absence of acute Taiwan Strait or regional crises prompting rapid demonstrations, and standard testing timelines against the roughly three months remaining, while noting that unannounced or lower-profile events could still shift assessments before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
23% 機率
$11,959 交易量
$11,959 交易量
2026-12-31
是
23% 機率
$11,959 交易量
$11,959 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s infrequent pattern of publicly acknowledged long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the 72% implied probability that no qualifying launch will occur by year-end. The most recent such event was a July 6 submarine-launched intercontinental-range missile test into the South Pacific, described by Beijing as routine and carrying a dummy warhead. Subsequent months have seen no comparable tests, with September attention focused on North Korean short-range launches and routine Chinese space activity instead. Traders weigh this historical cadence, the absence of acute Taiwan Strait or regional crises prompting rapid demonstrations, and standard testing timelines against the roughly three months remaining, while noting that unannounced or lower-profile events could still shift assessments before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
市場開放時間： Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
交易量
$11,959結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s infrequent pattern of publicly acknowledged long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the 72% implied probability that no qualifying launch will occur by year-end. The most recent such event was a July 6 submarine-launched intercontinental-range missile test into the South Pacific, described by Beijing as routine and carrying a dummy warhead. Subsequent months have seen no comparable tests, with September attention focused on North Korean short-range launches and routine Chinese space activity instead. Traders weigh this historical cadence, the absence of acute Taiwan Strait or regional crises prompting rapid demonstrations, and standard testing timelines against the roughly three months remaining, while noting that unannounced or lower-profile events could still shift assessments before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$11,959結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETChina’s infrequent pattern of publicly acknowledged long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the 72% implied probability that no qualifying launch will occur by year-end. The most recent such event was a July 6 submarine-launched intercontinental-range missile test into the South Pacific, described by Beijing as routine and carrying a dummy warhead. Subsequent months have seen no comparable tests, with September attention focused on North Korean short-range launches and routine Chinese space activity instead. Traders weigh this historical cadence, the absence of acute Taiwan Strait or regional crises prompting rapid demonstrations, and standard testing timelines against the roughly three months remaining, while noting that unannounced or lower-profile events could still shift assessments before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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