China’s July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered vessel into the South Pacific remains the dominant recent development shaping trader views. Beijing described the exercise, widely assessed as involving a JL-3 missile with a dummy warhead, as routine annual training and notified select governments in advance, though regional partners including Australia, Japan, and New Zealand registered concerns over notice periods and flight paths. Mid-September defense coordination talks between Australian and Chinese officials focused on that test and broader military conduct without indicating follow-on launches. No additional ballistic missile tests have been publicly confirmed since July, and ongoing diplomatic channels plus standard training cycles have produced limited signals of near-term activity through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
23% 機率
$11,959 交易量
$11,959 交易量
2026-12-31
是
23% 機率
$11,959 交易量
$11,959 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered vessel into the South Pacific remains the dominant recent development shaping trader views. Beijing described the exercise, widely assessed as involving a JL-3 missile with a dummy warhead, as routine annual training and notified select governments in advance, though regional partners including Australia, Japan, and New Zealand registered concerns over notice periods and flight paths. Mid-September defense coordination talks between Australian and Chinese officials focused on that test and broader military conduct without indicating follow-on launches. No additional ballistic missile tests have been publicly confirmed since July, and ongoing diplomatic channels plus standard training cycles have produced limited signals of near-term activity through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
市場開放時間： Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
交易量
$11,959結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered vessel into the South Pacific remains the dominant recent development shaping trader views. Beijing described the exercise, widely assessed as involving a JL-3 missile with a dummy warhead, as routine annual training and notified select governments in advance, though regional partners including Australia, Japan, and New Zealand registered concerns over notice periods and flight paths. Mid-September defense coordination talks between Australian and Chinese officials focused on that test and broader military conduct without indicating follow-on launches. No additional ballistic missile tests have been publicly confirmed since July, and ongoing diplomatic channels plus standard training cycles have produced limited signals of near-term activity through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$11,959結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETChina’s July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered vessel into the South Pacific remains the dominant recent development shaping trader views. Beijing described the exercise, widely assessed as involving a JL-3 missile with a dummy warhead, as routine annual training and notified select governments in advance, though regional partners including Australia, Japan, and New Zealand registered concerns over notice periods and flight paths. Mid-September defense coordination talks between Australian and Chinese officials focused on that test and broader military conduct without indicating follow-on launches. No additional ballistic missile tests have been publicly confirmed since July, and ongoing diplomatic channels plus standard training cycles have produced limited signals of near-term activity through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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