China's July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine annual training with advance notice to select governments, remains the dominant recent development shaping trader views. Subsequent diplomatic exchanges, including Australian concerns raised in mid-September defense talks and Pacific Islands Forum statements expressing unease over notification and overflight, have not produced new indications of imminent follow-on launches. Regional military exercises continue without escalation signals, and no official announcements point to additional intercontinental-range tests before year-end. This backdrop supports the current trader consensus favoring no further such launches by December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
27% 機率
$11,965 交易量
$11,965 交易量
2026-12-31
是
27% 機率
$11,965 交易量
$11,965 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China's July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine annual training with advance notice to select governments, remains the dominant recent development shaping trader views. Subsequent diplomatic exchanges, including Australian concerns raised in mid-September defense talks and Pacific Islands Forum statements expressing unease over notification and overflight, have not produced new indications of imminent follow-on launches. Regional military exercises continue without escalation signals, and no official announcements point to additional intercontinental-range tests before year-end. This backdrop supports the current trader consensus favoring no further such launches by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
市場開放時間： Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
交易量
$11,965結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China's July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine annual training with advance notice to select governments, remains the dominant recent development shaping trader views. Subsequent diplomatic exchanges, including Australian concerns raised in mid-September defense talks and Pacific Islands Forum statements expressing unease over notification and overflight, have not produced new indications of imminent follow-on launches. Regional military exercises continue without escalation signals, and no official announcements point to additional intercontinental-range tests before year-end. This backdrop supports the current trader consensus favoring no further such launches by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$11,965結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETChina's July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine annual training with advance notice to select governments, remains the dominant recent development shaping trader views. Subsequent diplomatic exchanges, including Australian concerns raised in mid-September defense talks and Pacific Islands Forum statements expressing unease over notification and overflight, have not produced new indications of imminent follow-on launches. Regional military exercises continue without escalation signals, and no official announcements point to additional intercontinental-range tests before year-end. This backdrop supports the current trader consensus favoring no further such launches by December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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