**Ongoing maritime confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval vessels in the South China Sea have remained at the level of dangerous maneuvers, blocking actions, and close aerial approaches rather than escalating into direct military combat.** Recent incidents near Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Shoal, Thitu Island, and other features through September and early October 2026 involved rammings, helicopter circling, and obstruction of resupply or law-enforcement operations, prompting mutual accusations and diplomatic protests. Both governments have referenced prior provisional understandings on resupply missions and continued bilateral dialogue alongside external support for Manila, which traders interpret as evidence that gray-zone pressure is likely to persist without crossing into open armed conflict before the end of 2026. The 75% implied probability on “No” reflects this pattern of contained escalation, historical precedent for avoiding full clashes, and the deterrent effect of alliance dynamics.