Traders assign a 95.5% probability that no China-Taiwan military clash occurs before 2027, reflecting sustained gray-zone pressure through frequent PLA aircraft sorties and naval patrols that cross the median line and enter Taiwan’s ADIZ without triggering direct combat. The late-September 2026 Xi-Trump summit produced an extended trade truce and reiterated U.S. non-support for independence, while Beijing emphasized diplomatic and economic levers alongside routine maritime enforcement near Kinmen. Taiwan has responded with defense budget increases, local munitions production, and urban warfare preparations, yet both sides continue calibrated signaling that avoids escalation thresholds. High consensus rests on this pattern of incremental coercion and bilateral dialogue. Shifts could arise from miscalculation during intensified patrols, abrupt changes in U.S. arms policy, or internal leadership pressures in Beijing that alter risk calculations within the 2027 window.