US intelligence assessments from early 2026 indicate that Beijing continues to prioritize non-military unification with Taiwan and views a direct amphibious operation as high-risk, especially amid ongoing PLA leadership purges and capability gaps. This assessment aligns with reduced monthly ADIZ incursions in the first half of the year compared to 2025 peaks, alongside diplomatic engagement during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where both sides reaffirmed established positions on cross-strait stability without triggering escalation. Trader consensus reflected in the 91.5 percent implied probability for no clash incorporates these deterrence signals and historical patterns of gray-zone pressure rather than open conflict. Late developments such as miscalculations during exercises or shifts in US arms policy could still introduce volatility within the resolution window through December 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,793,004 交易量
$1,793,004 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,793,004 交易量
$1,793,004 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early 2026 indicate that Beijing continues to prioritize non-military unification with Taiwan and views a direct amphibious operation as high-risk, especially amid ongoing PLA leadership purges and capability gaps. This assessment aligns with reduced monthly ADIZ incursions in the first half of the year compared to 2025 peaks, alongside diplomatic engagement during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where both sides reaffirmed established positions on cross-strait stability without triggering escalation. Trader consensus reflected in the 91.5 percent implied probability for no clash incorporates these deterrence signals and historical patterns of gray-zone pressure rather than open conflict. Late developments such as miscalculations during exercises or shifts in US arms policy could still introduce volatility within the resolution window through December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$1,793,004結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early 2026 indicate that Beijing continues to prioritize non-military unification with Taiwan and views a direct amphibious operation as high-risk, especially amid ongoing PLA leadership purges and capability gaps. This assessment aligns with reduced monthly ADIZ incursions in the first half of the year compared to 2025 peaks, alongside diplomatic engagement during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where both sides reaffirmed established positions on cross-strait stability without triggering escalation. Trader consensus reflected in the 91.5 percent implied probability for no clash incorporates these deterrence signals and historical patterns of gray-zone pressure rather than open conflict. Late developments such as miscalculations during exercises or shifts in US arms policy could still introduce volatility within the resolution window through December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,793,004結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early 2026 indicate that Beijing continues to prioritize non-military unification with Taiwan and views a direct amphibious operation as high-risk, especially amid ongoing PLA leadership purges and capability gaps. This assessment aligns with reduced monthly ADIZ incursions in the first half of the year compared to 2025 peaks, alongside diplomatic engagement during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where both sides reaffirmed established positions on cross-strait stability without triggering escalation. Trader consensus reflected in the 91.5 percent implied probability for no clash incorporates these deterrence signals and historical patterns of gray-zone pressure rather than open conflict. Late developments such as miscalculations during exercises or shifts in US arms policy could still introduce volatility within the resolution window through December 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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