Traders assign only a 7.2% chance of a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 largely because U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Beijing has no current plan or fixed timetable for unification by force. Routine PLA drills, including July live-fire exercises in the strait and ongoing air and maritime activity, continue alongside Taiwan’s August Han Kuang exercises, yet these remain calibrated signaling rather than preparations for imminent conflict. Diplomatic channels have stayed active, including the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meetings with Chinese leaders emphasizing peaceful development. Short-of-war coercion near Kinmen persists, but no kinetic escalation has materialized in the resolution window, and analysts note Beijing appears focused on post-2028 political opportunities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
7% 機率
$3,214,189 交易量
$3,214,189 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 機率
$3,214,189 交易量
$3,214,189 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign only a 7.2% chance of a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 largely because U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Beijing has no current plan or fixed timetable for unification by force. Routine PLA drills, including July live-fire exercises in the strait and ongoing air and maritime activity, continue alongside Taiwan’s August Han Kuang exercises, yet these remain calibrated signaling rather than preparations for imminent conflict. Diplomatic channels have stayed active, including the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meetings with Chinese leaders emphasizing peaceful development. Short-of-war coercion near Kinmen persists, but no kinetic escalation has materialized in the resolution window, and analysts note Beijing appears focused on post-2028 political opportunities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$3,214,189結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign only a 7.2% chance of a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 largely because U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Beijing has no current plan or fixed timetable for unification by force. Routine PLA drills, including July live-fire exercises in the strait and ongoing air and maritime activity, continue alongside Taiwan’s August Han Kuang exercises, yet these remain calibrated signaling rather than preparations for imminent conflict. Diplomatic channels have stayed active, including the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meetings with Chinese leaders emphasizing peaceful development. Short-of-war coercion near Kinmen persists, but no kinetic escalation has materialized in the resolution window, and analysts note Beijing appears focused on post-2028 political opportunities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,214,189結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign only a 7.2% chance of a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 largely because U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Beijing has no current plan or fixed timetable for unification by force. Routine PLA drills, including July live-fire exercises in the strait and ongoing air and maritime activity, continue alongside Taiwan’s August Han Kuang exercises, yet these remain calibrated signaling rather than preparations for imminent conflict. Diplomatic channels have stayed active, including the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meetings with Chinese leaders emphasizing peaceful development. Short-of-war coercion near Kinmen persists, but no kinetic escalation has materialized in the resolution window, and analysts note Beijing appears focused on post-2028 political opportunities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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