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icon for 新竹縣治安法官選舉優勝者
政治·臺灣

新竹縣治安法官選舉優勝者

icon for 新竹縣治安法官選舉優勝者
政治·臺灣

新竹縣治安法官選舉優勝者

徐欣瑩 82%

鄭朝方 18%

林思銘 <1%

陳見賢 <1%

Polymarket
最新

徐欣瑩 82%

鄭朝方 18%

林思銘 <1%

陳見賢 <1%

Polymarket
最新
icon for 徐欣瑩

徐欣瑩

$2,329 交易量

82%

icon for 鄭朝方

鄭朝方

$1,888 交易量

18%

icon for 林思銘

林思銘

$354 交易量

1%

icon for 陳見賢

陳見賢

$292 交易量

<1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).**Hsu Hsin-ying (KMT) holds an 82.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the November 28, 2026 Hsinchu County Magistrate election, well ahead of DPP nominee Cheng Chao-fang at 18%, with all other listed candidates at negligible levels.** Hsu secured the KMT nomination in late March after prevailing in a mixed primary that combined polling (70%) and party-member voting (30%) against Hsinchu County Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien. She benefits from broader geographic support across most county municipalities outside Zhubei, established party infrastructure, and prior legislative experience in the district. Cheng, nominated by the DPP in mid-June following direct recruitment by President Lai Ching-te, draws strength from his record as Zhubei Mayor—the county’s most populous city—and among college-educated voters, but faces structural headwinds in a county where the KMT maintains a stronger organizational base. Recent polling trends through mid-2026 have shown Hsu maintaining a consistent edge, while late-August reports of friction between the KMT and TPP over the related Zhubei mayoral race have introduced minor uncertainty around pan-blue coordination without materially shifting the overall consensus. The market’s pricing reflects traders’ assessment of these structural and polling factors heading into the final campaign period.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
交易量
$4,864
結束日期
2026-11-28
市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).**Hsu Hsin-ying (KMT) holds an 82.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the November 28, 2026 Hsinchu County Magistrate election, well ahead of DPP nominee Cheng Chao-fang at 18%, with all other listed candidates at negligible levels.** Hsu secured the KMT nomination in late March after prevailing in a mixed primary that combined polling (70%) and party-member voting (30%) against Hsinchu County Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien. She benefits from broader geographic support across most county municipalities outside Zhubei, established party infrastructure, and prior legislative experience in the district. Cheng, nominated by the DPP in mid-June following direct recruitment by President Lai Ching-te, draws strength from his record as Zhubei Mayor—the county’s most populous city—and among college-educated voters, but faces structural headwinds in a county where the KMT maintains a stronger organizational base. Recent polling trends through mid-2026 have shown Hsu maintaining a consistent edge, while late-August reports of friction between the KMT and TPP over the related Zhubei mayoral race have introduced minor uncertainty around pan-blue coordination without materially shifting the overall consensus. The market’s pricing reflects traders’ assessment of these structural and polling factors heading into the final campaign period.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
交易量
$4,864
結束日期
2026-11-28
市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"新竹縣治安法官選舉優勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "徐欣瑩" at 82%, followed by "鄭朝方" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"新竹縣治安法官選舉優勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "新竹縣治安法官選舉優勝者," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "新竹縣治安法官選舉優勝者" is "徐欣瑩" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "鄭朝方" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "新竹縣治安法官選舉優勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.