Trump's continued tenure through late 2026 faces steep institutional barriers that sustain the strong market consensus against early removal. Impeachment requires House approval plus a two-thirds Senate supermajority, a process historically difficult even under unified opposition and further complicated by likely Republican congressional majorities. Invocation of the 25th Amendment demands broad cabinet or congressional consensus unlikely without clear incapacity. No major health developments, successful legal challenges to eligibility, or resignation signals have emerged to shift these dynamics, while the next presidential election remains outside the resolution window. Traders price this combination of procedural hurdles and political stability into the elevated probability against departure before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
6% 機率
$10,908,802 交易量
$10,908,802 交易量
2026-12-30
是
6% 機率
$10,908,802 交易量
$10,908,802 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's continued tenure through late 2026 faces steep institutional barriers that sustain the strong market consensus against early removal. Impeachment requires House approval plus a two-thirds Senate supermajority, a process historically difficult even under unified opposition and further complicated by likely Republican congressional majorities. Invocation of the 25th Amendment demands broad cabinet or congressional consensus unlikely without clear incapacity. No major health developments, successful legal challenges to eligibility, or resignation signals have emerged to shift these dynamics, while the next presidential election remains outside the resolution window. Traders price this combination of procedural hurdles and political stability into the elevated probability against departure before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
交易量
$10,908,802結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's continued tenure through late 2026 faces steep institutional barriers that sustain the strong market consensus against early removal. Impeachment requires House approval plus a two-thirds Senate supermajority, a process historically difficult even under unified opposition and further complicated by likely Republican congressional majorities. Invocation of the 25th Amendment demands broad cabinet or congressional consensus unlikely without clear incapacity. No major health developments, successful legal challenges to eligibility, or resignation signals have emerged to shift these dynamics, while the next presidential election remains outside the resolution window. Traders price this combination of procedural hurdles and political stability into the elevated probability against departure before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$10,908,802結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's continued tenure through late 2026 faces steep institutional barriers that sustain the strong market consensus against early removal. Impeachment requires House approval plus a two-thirds Senate supermajority, a process historically difficult even under unified opposition and further complicated by likely Republican congressional majorities. Invocation of the 25th Amendment demands broad cabinet or congressional consensus unlikely without clear incapacity. No major health developments, successful legal challenges to eligibility, or resignation signals have emerged to shift these dynamics, while the next presidential election remains outside the resolution window. Traders price this combination of procedural hurdles and political stability into the elevated probability against departure before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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