Trader consensus on the low probability of an early departure reflects the high institutional barriers to removing a sitting president midway through a term, including the need for House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction or invocation of constitutional succession procedures. Partisan divisions in Congress have limited momentum for such steps, while the administration has maintained continuity in executive actions and legislative priorities since the 2024 results. Historical base rates show few precedents for rapid exits absent acute crises. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health developments, bipartisan scandals prompting resignation, or unforeseen legal rulings affecting eligibility, though these would require exceptional circumstances to overcome current pricing.