Recent Israeli election polls show the pro-Netanyahu and opposition Zionist blocs nearly tied around 53 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset, well short of the 61-seat majority needed after the October 27 vote. Arab parties hold the balance of power amid discussions of minority governments or cross-bloc understandings. President Isaac Herzog has publicly committed to preventing a second round of elections and forming a stable government. Traders appear to assign a moderate probability that coalition negotiations, which often extend weeks after fragmented results, produce a new administration receiving Knesset confidence before year-end, aligning with historical precedents for government formation despite ongoing deadlock risks.