Recent polling and alliance-building among opposition leaders have strengthened prospects for a governing majority in Israel's scheduled October 2026 legislative election, supporting the 65% trader-implied probability against a hung parliament. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's late-April formation of the joint "Together" list, alongside potential ties to figures such as Avigdor Lieberman, has consolidated fragmented centrist and right-leaning votes, with surveys projecting the bloc near or above the 61-seat threshold needed for a coalition. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led right-wing bloc continues to poll competitively but faces coalition strains over draft exemptions and security policy, prompting discussions of advancing the vote to September. These dynamics reflect ongoing bloc negotiations typical of Israel's proportional representation system, where small shifts in turnout or endorsements could still determine whether either side crosses the majority line.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-10-27
最新
最新
2026-10-27
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and alliance-building among opposition leaders have strengthened prospects for a governing majority in Israel's scheduled October 2026 legislative election, supporting the 65% trader-implied probability against a hung parliament. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's late-April formation of the joint "Together" list, alongside potential ties to figures such as Avigdor Lieberman, has consolidated fragmented centrist and right-leaning votes, with surveys projecting the bloc near or above the 61-seat threshold needed for a coalition. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led right-wing bloc continues to poll competitively but faces coalition strains over draft exemptions and security policy, prompting discussions of advancing the vote to September. These dynamics reflect ongoing bloc negotiations typical of Israel's proportional representation system, where small shifts in turnout or endorsements could still determine whether either side crosses the majority line.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
交易量
$106結束日期
2026-10-27市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and alliance-building among opposition leaders have strengthened prospects for a governing majority in Israel's scheduled October 2026 legislative election, supporting the 65% trader-implied probability against a hung parliament. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's late-April formation of the joint "Together" list, alongside potential ties to figures such as Avigdor Lieberman, has consolidated fragmented centrist and right-leaning votes, with surveys projecting the bloc near or above the 61-seat threshold needed for a coalition. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led right-wing bloc continues to poll competitively but faces coalition strains over draft exemptions and security policy, prompting discussions of advancing the vote to September. These dynamics reflect ongoing bloc negotiations typical of Israel's proportional representation system, where small shifts in turnout or endorsements could still determine whether either side crosses the majority line.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$106結束日期
2026-10-27市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling and alliance-building among opposition leaders have strengthened prospects for a governing majority in Israel's scheduled October 2026 legislative election, supporting the 65% trader-implied probability against a hung parliament. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's late-April formation of the joint "Together" list, alongside potential ties to figures such as Avigdor Lieberman, has consolidated fragmented centrist and right-leaning votes, with surveys projecting the bloc near or above the 61-seat threshold needed for a coalition. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led right-wing bloc continues to poll competitively but faces coalition strains over draft exemptions and security policy, prompting discussions of advancing the vote to September. These dynamics reflect ongoing bloc negotiations typical of Israel's proportional representation system, where small shifts in turnout or endorsements could still determine whether either side crosses the majority line.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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