**Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected to win roughly 21–24 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36).** Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 14 in late July and early August place Likud in this narrower band, with Yashar (led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot) often ahead or tied at 22–23 seats. Netanyahu's broader right-wing and religious coalition bloc typically polls at 48–52 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Key factors include the lingering effects of the post-October 7 security environment, public fatigue with the coalition's handling of the war and related issues such as ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and internal Likud strains over primaries and Netanyahu's expanded control of the candidate list. These dynamics have contributed to a sustained decline in Likud support relative to 2022 levels, driving trader consensus toward a high probability of seat losses even as the party remains the single largest in many surveys. Upcoming primaries and further polling releases within the resolution window could still influence final positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於88% 機率
$11,080 交易量
$11,080 交易量
2026-10-27
88% 機率
$11,080 交易量
$11,080 交易量
2026-10-27
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected to win roughly 21–24 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36).** Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 14 in late July and early August place Likud in this narrower band, with Yashar (led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot) often ahead or tied at 22–23 seats. Netanyahu's broader right-wing and religious coalition bloc typically polls at 48–52 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold.
Key factors include the lingering effects of the post-October 7 security environment, public fatigue with the coalition's handling of the war and related issues such as ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and internal Likud strains over primaries and Netanyahu's expanded control of the candidate list. These dynamics have contributed to a sustained decline in Likud support relative to 2022 levels, driving trader consensus toward a high probability of seat losses even as the party remains the single largest in many surveys. Upcoming primaries and further polling releases within the resolution window could still influence final positioning.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$11,080結束日期
2026-10-27市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected to win roughly 21–24 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36).** Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 14 in late July and early August place Likud in this narrower band, with Yashar (led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot) often ahead or tied at 22–23 seats. Netanyahu's broader right-wing and religious coalition bloc typically polls at 48–52 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold.
Key factors include the lingering effects of the post-October 7 security environment, public fatigue with the coalition's handling of the war and related issues such as ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and internal Likud strains over primaries and Netanyahu's expanded control of the candidate list. These dynamics have contributed to a sustained decline in Likud support relative to 2022 levels, driving trader consensus toward a high probability of seat losses even as the party remains the single largest in many surveys. Upcoming primaries and further polling releases within the resolution window could still influence final positioning.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
交易量
$11,080結束日期
2026-10-27市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected to win roughly 21–24 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36).** Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 14 in late July and early August place Likud in this narrower band, with Yashar (led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot) often ahead or tied at 22–23 seats. Netanyahu's broader right-wing and religious coalition bloc typically polls at 48–52 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Key factors include the lingering effects of the post-October 7 security environment, public fatigue with the coalition's handling of the war and related issues such as ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and internal Likud strains over primaries and Netanyahu's expanded control of the candidate list. These dynamics have contributed to a sustained decline in Likud support relative to 2022 levels, driving trader consensus toward a high probability of seat losses even as the party remains the single largest in many surveys. Upcoming primaries and further polling releases within the resolution window could still influence final positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions