Diplomatic momentum for expanding the Abraham Accords has slowed since Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025, the first addition under the current U.S. administration and driven by shared security priorities. Saudi Arabia remains the primary focus for traders, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has expressed interest in normalization while conditioning any deal on concrete progress toward a two-state solution and a Gaza ceasefire. No new bilateral agreements have been finalized in 2026 despite ongoing U.S. diplomatic pushes and technical talks. Potential candidates such as Oman, Indonesia, or Somaliland face regional and procedural barriers, including Palestinian-related demands and internal political constraints. Upcoming developments that could shift probabilities include U.S.-Saudi summits or phased Gaza arrangements before the December 31, 2026, cutoff.