Traders assign an 86% probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal in 2026 due to entrenched partisan divisions in Congress and the absence of active bilateral negotiations. With Republicans holding majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, any agreement would face scrutiny over sanctions relief, verification mechanisms, and regional security concerns involving Israel and Gulf allies. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or executive branch initiatives have emerged in recent months to shift momentum toward a new accord. Historical patterns show low success rates for Iran-related legislation without broad bipartisan support or urgent administration priority. Upcoming legislative calendars focused on appropriations and domestic issues further reduce prospects for floor consideration before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
$12,347 交易量
$12,347 交易量
2027-01-01
$12,347 交易量
$12,347 交易量
2027-01-01
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 86% probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal in 2026 due to entrenched partisan divisions in Congress and the absence of active bilateral negotiations. With Republicans holding majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, any agreement would face scrutiny over sanctions relief, verification mechanisms, and regional security concerns involving Israel and Gulf allies. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or executive branch initiatives have emerged in recent months to shift momentum toward a new accord. Historical patterns show low success rates for Iran-related legislation without broad bipartisan support or urgent administration priority. Upcoming legislative calendars focused on appropriations and domestic issues further reduce prospects for floor consideration before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$12,347結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 86% probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal in 2026 due to entrenched partisan divisions in Congress and the absence of active bilateral negotiations. With Republicans holding majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, any agreement would face scrutiny over sanctions relief, verification mechanisms, and regional security concerns involving Israel and Gulf allies. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or executive branch initiatives have emerged in recent months to shift momentum toward a new accord. Historical patterns show low success rates for Iran-related legislation without broad bipartisan support or urgent administration priority. Upcoming legislative calendars focused on appropriations and domestic issues further reduce prospects for floor consideration before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$12,347結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 86% probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal in 2026 due to entrenched partisan divisions in Congress and the absence of active bilateral negotiations. With Republicans holding majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, any agreement would face scrutiny over sanctions relief, verification mechanisms, and regional security concerns involving Israel and Gulf allies. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or executive branch initiatives have emerged in recent months to shift momentum toward a new accord. Historical patterns show low success rates for Iran-related legislation without broad bipartisan support or urgent administration priority. Upcoming legislative calendars focused on appropriations and domestic issues further reduce prospects for floor consideration before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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