**Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding have produced initial technical talks and limited sanctions easing but no finalized comprehensive agreement.** The MOU, signed around June 17, 2026, launched a 60-day (extendable) period for detailed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, enriched uranium disposition, enrichment limits, and IAEA verification—issues that remain unresolved as of early August. Key sticking points include the duration of any enrichment halt (U.S. reportedly seeking up to 20 years, Iran closer to 10) and verification mechanisms, against a backdrop of prior conflict, the 2025 sanctions snapback, and UNSC divisions involving Russia and China. The MOU explicitly calls for any final deal to be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution, similar to Resolution 2231, but achieving consensus on terms, drafting, and Council approval by December 31 faces procedural and political hurdles. Recent statements from U.S. officials describe talks as active and a deal as potentially “imminent” on narrower issues like the Strait of Hormuz, yet broader nuclear and sanctions elements continue to require extended negotiation. Trader consensus reflected in the 69.5% “No” probability aligns with the timeline pressures, historical length of such diplomacy, and remaining substantive gaps.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
31% 機率
$126,263 交易量
$126,263 交易量
2026-12-31
是
31% 機率
$126,263 交易量
$126,263 交易量
2026-12-31
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding have produced initial technical talks and limited sanctions easing but no finalized comprehensive agreement.** The MOU, signed around June 17, 2026, launched a 60-day (extendable) period for detailed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, enriched uranium disposition, enrichment limits, and IAEA verification—issues that remain unresolved as of early August.
Key sticking points include the duration of any enrichment halt (U.S. reportedly seeking up to 20 years, Iran closer to 10) and verification mechanisms, against a backdrop of prior conflict, the 2025 sanctions snapback, and UNSC divisions involving Russia and China. The MOU explicitly calls for any final deal to be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution, similar to Resolution 2231, but achieving consensus on terms, drafting, and Council approval by December 31 faces procedural and political hurdles.
Recent statements from U.S. officials describe talks as active and a deal as potentially “imminent” on narrower issues like the Strait of Hormuz, yet broader nuclear and sanctions elements continue to require extended negotiation. Trader consensus reflected in the 69.5% “No” probability aligns with the timeline pressures, historical length of such diplomacy, and remaining substantive gaps.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
交易量
$126,263結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding have produced initial technical talks and limited sanctions easing but no finalized comprehensive agreement.** The MOU, signed around June 17, 2026, launched a 60-day (extendable) period for detailed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, enriched uranium disposition, enrichment limits, and IAEA verification—issues that remain unresolved as of early August.
Key sticking points include the duration of any enrichment halt (U.S. reportedly seeking up to 20 years, Iran closer to 10) and verification mechanisms, against a backdrop of prior conflict, the 2025 sanctions snapback, and UNSC divisions involving Russia and China. The MOU explicitly calls for any final deal to be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution, similar to Resolution 2231, but achieving consensus on terms, drafting, and Council approval by December 31 faces procedural and political hurdles.
Recent statements from U.S. officials describe talks as active and a deal as potentially “imminent” on narrower issues like the Strait of Hormuz, yet broader nuclear and sanctions elements continue to require extended negotiation. Trader consensus reflected in the 69.5% “No” probability aligns with the timeline pressures, historical length of such diplomacy, and remaining substantive gaps.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$126,263結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding have produced initial technical talks and limited sanctions easing but no finalized comprehensive agreement.** The MOU, signed around June 17, 2026, launched a 60-day (extendable) period for detailed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, enriched uranium disposition, enrichment limits, and IAEA verification—issues that remain unresolved as of early August. Key sticking points include the duration of any enrichment halt (U.S. reportedly seeking up to 20 years, Iran closer to 10) and verification mechanisms, against a backdrop of prior conflict, the 2025 sanctions snapback, and UNSC divisions involving Russia and China. The MOU explicitly calls for any final deal to be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution, similar to Resolution 2231, but achieving consensus on terms, drafting, and Council approval by December 31 faces procedural and political hurdles. Recent statements from U.S. officials describe talks as active and a deal as potentially “imminent” on narrower issues like the Strait of Hormuz, yet broader nuclear and sanctions elements continue to require extended negotiation. Trader consensus reflected in the 69.5% “No” probability aligns with the timeline pressures, historical length of such diplomacy, and remaining substantive gaps.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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