Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war, despite renewed military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the conflict and a subsequent ceasefire, tensions escalated in July after Iranian restrictions on shipping prompted U.S. blockades and strikes. As of mid-August, talks remain stalled on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and maritime access, with mediators from Pakistan and Oman pushing indirect negotiations while both sides pause attacks to allow diplomacy. Escalation risks persist around enforcement actions and regional proxies, but primary focus stays on de-escalation through existing channels rather than formal war authorization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$7,763,872 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
3%
$7,763,872 交易量
12月31日
$791,238 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war, despite renewed military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the conflict and a subsequent ceasefire, tensions escalated in July after Iranian restrictions on shipping prompted U.S. blockades and strikes. As of mid-August, talks remain stalled on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and maritime access, with mediators from Pakistan and Oman pushing indirect negotiations while both sides pause attacks to allow diplomacy. Escalation risks persist around enforcement actions and regional proxies, but primary focus stays on de-escalation through existing channels rather than formal war authorization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
交易量
$7,763,872結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war, despite renewed military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the conflict and a subsequent ceasefire, tensions escalated in July after Iranian restrictions on shipping prompted U.S. blockades and strikes. As of mid-August, talks remain stalled on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and maritime access, with mediators from Pakistan and Oman pushing indirect negotiations while both sides pause attacks to allow diplomacy. Escalation risks persist around enforcement actions and regional proxies, but primary focus stays on de-escalation through existing channels rather than formal war authorization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,763,872結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war, despite renewed military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the conflict and a subsequent ceasefire, tensions escalated in July after Iranian restrictions on shipping prompted U.S. blockades and strikes. As of mid-August, talks remain stalled on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and maritime access, with mediators from Pakistan and Oman pushing indirect negotiations while both sides pause attacks to allow diplomacy. Escalation risks persist around enforcement actions and regional proxies, but primary focus stays on de-escalation through existing channels rather than formal war authorization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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