US President Donald Trump has described the ongoing conflict with Iran as “effectively over” and has signaled no immediate need for major combat operations, citing the effectiveness of sanctions, a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent limited defensive strikes on Iranian targets, such as those on Qeshm Island in early November, have occurred without escalation to broader hostilities. Quiet negotiations mediated by Qatar continue amid mixed signals, including stalled proposals on nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and reopening shipping routes, while congressional authorization for formal war remains absent. The administration’s emphasis on economic pressure and diplomatic channels, following midterm election results, shapes trader assessments of low near-term probability for an official congressional declaration. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any shifts in Iranian compliance or red-line violations could influence outcomes within the resolution window.