Ongoing military operations and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader views on any formal U.S. declaration of war on Iran. As of early August 2026, Iran has asserted management of the strait and conditioned reopening on U.S. removal of its naval blockade, compensation, sanctions relief, and asset releases, while U.S. officials report progress in Oman-mediated talks toward restoring commercial traffic. Renewed Iranian attacks on vessels prompted U.S. strikes and blockade reimposition after the June memorandum of understanding frayed, yet both sides have signaled pauses in hostilities to facilitate diplomacy. Congressional declarations of war remain rare in modern U.S. practice, with operations conducted under executive authority amid efforts to avoid broader escalation. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and any shifts in Hormuz traffic volumes represent near-term catalysts that could influence implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$7,764,533 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
3%
$7,764,533 交易量
12月31日
$791,899 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing military operations and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader views on any formal U.S. declaration of war on Iran. As of early August 2026, Iran has asserted management of the strait and conditioned reopening on U.S. removal of its naval blockade, compensation, sanctions relief, and asset releases, while U.S. officials report progress in Oman-mediated talks toward restoring commercial traffic. Renewed Iranian attacks on vessels prompted U.S. strikes and blockade reimposition after the June memorandum of understanding frayed, yet both sides have signaled pauses in hostilities to facilitate diplomacy. Congressional declarations of war remain rare in modern U.S. practice, with operations conducted under executive authority amid efforts to avoid broader escalation. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and any shifts in Hormuz traffic volumes represent near-term catalysts that could influence implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
交易量
$7,764,533結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing military operations and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader views on any formal U.S. declaration of war on Iran. As of early August 2026, Iran has asserted management of the strait and conditioned reopening on U.S. removal of its naval blockade, compensation, sanctions relief, and asset releases, while U.S. officials report progress in Oman-mediated talks toward restoring commercial traffic. Renewed Iranian attacks on vessels prompted U.S. strikes and blockade reimposition after the June memorandum of understanding frayed, yet both sides have signaled pauses in hostilities to facilitate diplomacy. Congressional declarations of war remain rare in modern U.S. practice, with operations conducted under executive authority amid efforts to avoid broader escalation. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and any shifts in Hormuz traffic volumes represent near-term catalysts that could influence implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,764,533結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader views on any formal U.S. declaration of war on Iran. As of early August 2026, Iran has asserted management of the strait and conditioned reopening on U.S. removal of its naval blockade, compensation, sanctions relief, and asset releases, while U.S. officials report progress in Oman-mediated talks toward restoring commercial traffic. Renewed Iranian attacks on vessels prompted U.S. strikes and blockade reimposition after the June memorandum of understanding frayed, yet both sides have signaled pauses in hostilities to facilitate diplomacy. Congressional declarations of war remain rare in modern U.S. practice, with operations conducted under executive authority amid efforts to avoid broader escalation. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and any shifts in Hormuz traffic volumes represent near-term catalysts that could influence implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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