Ongoing low-level clashes along the Lebanon-Syria border, including reported Israeli strikes and Hezbollah engagements on November 9, sustain trader focus on the risk of Hezbollah launching drones or missiles into Israeli territory. Stalled US-brokered talks tying Israeli withdrawal to verified disarmament, combined with Hezbollah’s receipt of Iranian funds to rebuild drone and explosives capabilities, keep the front active despite the June 2026 framework. Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon and the scheduled UNIFIL mandate end on December 31 add near-term pressure, while Hezbollah publicly asserts its right to resistance against Israeli positions. These factors shape market pricing around the probability of qualifying strikes before year-end resolution deadlines.