Recent polling across Resolve, RedBridge/Accent, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Newspoll shows the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred by margins of 51–49 to 57–43, driven by sustained voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government after more than a decade in office. Jacinta Allan’s record-low approval ratings prompted her late-July resignation and replacement by Ben Carroll, yet subsequent surveys indicate minimal recovery in Labor’s primary vote or preferred-premier standing against Coalition leader Jess Wilson. One Nation’s elevated primary support has further fragmented the vote in ways that typically channel preferences toward the Coalition. With the November 28 election three months away, these dynamics underpin trader consensus on a Coalition victory while leaving limited room for other outcomes absent major late shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Liberal–National 79%
Labor 20%
One Nation 3.7%
Greens 2.8%
$10,462 交易量
$10,462 交易量
2026-11-28
Liberal–National
79%
Labor
20%
One Nation
4%
Greens
3%
Liberal–National 79%
Labor 20%
One Nation 3.7%
Greens 2.8%
$10,462 交易量
$10,462 交易量
2026-11-28
Liberal–National
$6,357 交易量
79%
Labor
$1,659 交易量
20%
One Nation
$2,255 交易量
4%
Greens
$192 交易量
3%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across Resolve, RedBridge/Accent, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Newspoll shows the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred by margins of 51–49 to 57–43, driven by sustained voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government after more than a decade in office. Jacinta Allan’s record-low approval ratings prompted her late-July resignation and replacement by Ben Carroll, yet subsequent surveys indicate minimal recovery in Labor’s primary vote or preferred-premier standing against Coalition leader Jess Wilson. One Nation’s elevated primary support has further fragmented the vote in ways that typically channel preferences toward the Coalition. With the November 28 election three months away, these dynamics underpin trader consensus on a Coalition victory while leaving limited room for other outcomes absent major late shifts.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
交易量
$10,462結束日期
2026-11-28市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across Resolve, RedBridge/Accent, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Newspoll shows the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred by margins of 51–49 to 57–43, driven by sustained voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government after more than a decade in office. Jacinta Allan’s record-low approval ratings prompted her late-July resignation and replacement by Ben Carroll, yet subsequent surveys indicate minimal recovery in Labor’s primary vote or preferred-premier standing against Coalition leader Jess Wilson. One Nation’s elevated primary support has further fragmented the vote in ways that typically channel preferences toward the Coalition. With the November 28 election three months away, these dynamics underpin trader consensus on a Coalition victory while leaving limited room for other outcomes absent major late shifts.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
交易量
$10,462結束日期
2026-11-28市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling across Resolve, RedBridge/Accent, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Newspoll shows the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred by margins of 51–49 to 57–43, driven by sustained voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government after more than a decade in office. Jacinta Allan’s record-low approval ratings prompted her late-July resignation and replacement by Ben Carroll, yet subsequent surveys indicate minimal recovery in Labor’s primary vote or preferred-premier standing against Coalition leader Jess Wilson. One Nation’s elevated primary support has further fragmented the vote in ways that typically channel preferences toward the Coalition. With the November 28 election three months away, these dynamics underpin trader consensus on a Coalition victory while leaving limited room for other outcomes absent major late shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions