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政治·澳洲

維多利亞州下一任州長

icon for 維多利亞州下一任州長
政治·澳洲

維多利亞州下一任州長

傑斯·威爾森 63%

Ben Carroll 20%

華倫·皮克林 11%

雅辛塔·艾倫 4.3%

Polymarket
最新

$10,577 交易量

傑斯·威爾森 63%

Ben Carroll 20%

華倫·皮克林 11%

雅辛塔·艾倫 4.3%

Polymarket
最新

$10,577 交易量

icon for 傑斯·威爾森

傑斯·威爾森

$917 交易量

63%

icon for Ben Carroll

Ben Carroll

$643 交易量

20%

icon for 華倫·皮克林

華倫·皮克林

$978 交易量

11%

icon for 雅辛塔·艾倫

雅辛塔·艾倫

$192 交易量

4%

icon for Emma Kealy

Emma Kealy

$1,028 交易量

4%

icon for Sonya Kilkenny

Sonya Kilkenny

$100 交易量

4%

icon for 史蒂夫·迪莫波洛斯

史蒂夫·迪莫波洛斯

$100 交易量

4%

icon for Gabrielle Williams

Gabrielle Williams

$50 交易量

3%

icon for David Southwick

David Southwick

$50 交易量

3%

icon for 布萊德·巴廷

布萊德·巴廷

$1,028 交易量

<1%

icon for 詹姆斯·紐伯里

詹姆斯·紐伯里

$1,066 交易量

<1%

icon for 丹尼·奧布萊恩

丹尼·奧布萊恩

$1,303 交易量

<1%

icon for Ellen Sandell

Ellen Sandell

$1,028 交易量

<1%

icon for Jaclyn Symes

Jaclyn Symes

$1,028 交易量

<1%

icon for Sam Groth

Sam Groth

$1,066 交易量

<1%

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson, the Liberal opposition leader since late 2025, holds the strongest implied probability in the market ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election. Recent DemosAU polling shows the Coalition ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, with Wilson preferred as premier over incumbent Ben Carroll. Traders reflect this positioning with Wilson at the top outcome, while Carroll’s share accounts for Labor’s path to retaining government despite the July 2026 leadership transition that installed him after Jacinta Allan’s resignation amid slumping polls and construction-sector integrity concerns. Lower probabilities for figures including Warren Pickering, Allan, Gabrielle Williams, and other Labor ministers align with the Coalition’s polling edge and the structural challenges facing the government four months from the election.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$10,577
結束日期
2026-11-28
市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

結算來源

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson, the Liberal opposition leader since late 2025, holds the strongest implied probability in the market ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election. Recent DemosAU polling shows the Coalition ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, with Wilson preferred as premier over incumbent Ben Carroll. Traders reflect this positioning with Wilson at the top outcome, while Carroll’s share accounts for Labor’s path to retaining government despite the July 2026 leadership transition that installed him after Jacinta Allan’s resignation amid slumping polls and construction-sector integrity concerns. Lower probabilities for figures including Warren Pickering, Allan, Gabrielle Williams, and other Labor ministers align with the Coalition’s polling edge and the structural challenges facing the government four months from the election.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$10,577
結束日期
2026-11-28
市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

結算來源

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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icon for 瑪麗安·阿爾托會贏得2026年維多利亞市長選舉嗎？

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是
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Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

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警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"維多利亞州下一任州長" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "傑斯·威爾森" at 63%, followed by "Ben Carroll" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "維多利亞州下一任州長" has generated $10.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "維多利亞州下一任州長," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "維多利亞州下一任州長" is "傑斯·威爾森" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ben Carroll" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "維多利亞州下一任州長" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.