Recent defections, including Barnaby Joyce's move from the Nationals in late 2025 and expressions of interest from figures like former Labor MLC Ben Dawkins, combined with One Nation's polling surge to around 23-28% amid immigration and energy policy debates, have lifted expectations for further realignments. Gains such as the Farrer by-election win and Luke Herdegen's 2026 election in Western Australia demonstrate the party's expanding appeal among conservative voters, while reports of Liberal MPs engaging with or signaling support for One Nation keep defection risks in focus. With the federal election still distant and coalition tensions persisting, traders assign a modest edge to at least one additional sitting MP switching before the end of 2026, though no confirmed moves have materialized in recent weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent defections, including Barnaby Joyce's move from the Nationals in late 2025 and expressions of interest from figures like former Labor MLC Ben Dawkins, combined with One Nation's polling surge to around 23-28% amid immigration and energy policy debates, have lifted expectations for further realignments. Gains such as the Farrer by-election win and Luke Herdegen's 2026 election in Western Australia demonstrate the party's expanding appeal among conservative voters, while reports of Liberal MPs engaging with or signaling support for One Nation keep defection risks in focus. With the federal election still distant and coalition tensions persisting, traders assign a modest edge to at least one additional sitting MP switching before the end of 2026, though no confirmed moves have materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
交易量
$212結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent defections, including Barnaby Joyce's move from the Nationals in late 2025 and expressions of interest from figures like former Labor MLC Ben Dawkins, combined with One Nation's polling surge to around 23-28% amid immigration and energy policy debates, have lifted expectations for further realignments. Gains such as the Farrer by-election win and Luke Herdegen's 2026 election in Western Australia demonstrate the party's expanding appeal among conservative voters, while reports of Liberal MPs engaging with or signaling support for One Nation keep defection risks in focus. With the federal election still distant and coalition tensions persisting, traders assign a modest edge to at least one additional sitting MP switching before the end of 2026, though no confirmed moves have materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$212結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETRecent defections, including Barnaby Joyce's move from the Nationals in late 2025 and expressions of interest from figures like former Labor MLC Ben Dawkins, combined with One Nation's polling surge to around 23-28% amid immigration and energy policy debates, have lifted expectations for further realignments. Gains such as the Farrer by-election win and Luke Herdegen's 2026 election in Western Australia demonstrate the party's expanding appeal among conservative voters, while reports of Liberal MPs engaging with or signaling support for One Nation keep defection risks in focus. With the federal election still distant and coalition tensions persisting, traders assign a modest edge to at least one additional sitting MP switching before the end of 2026, though no confirmed moves have materialized in recent weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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