Recent statewide polling for the November 28 Victorian election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Coalition leading on 28-32 percent, One Nation close behind on 22-25 percent, Labor on 23-25 percent, and the Greens on 12-15 percent. This three-way contest among the larger parties has elevated One Nation’s implied probability of finishing third, as major parties are expected to occupy the top two spots under preferential voting across 88 Legislative Assembly districts. One Nation’s sustained gains since mid-2026 reflect voter shifts away from Labor after 12 years in office, while smaller parties and minor groups remain well behind in every published survey. The September RedBridge and Resolve polls reinforced this positioning with minimal movement from prior months.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於One Nation 63%
Greens 19.4%
Labor 6.8%
Liberal–National <1%
$20,841 交易量
$20,841 交易量
2026-11-28
One Nation
63%
Greens
19%
Labor
7%
Liberal–National
1%
Legalise Cannabis
<1%
Animal Justice
<1%
Libertarian
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
<1%
One Nation 63%
Greens 19.4%
Labor 6.8%
Liberal–National <1%
$20,841 交易量
$20,841 交易量
2026-11-28
One Nation
$7,412 交易量
63%
Greens
$441 交易量
19%
Labor
$6,507 交易量
7%
Liberal–National
$1,936 交易量
1%
Legalise Cannabis
$1,312 交易量
<1%
Animal Justice
$932 交易量
<1%
Libertarian
$1,387 交易量
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$914 交易量
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent statewide polling for the November 28 Victorian election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Coalition leading on 28-32 percent, One Nation close behind on 22-25 percent, Labor on 23-25 percent, and the Greens on 12-15 percent. This three-way contest among the larger parties has elevated One Nation’s implied probability of finishing third, as major parties are expected to occupy the top two spots under preferential voting across 88 Legislative Assembly districts. One Nation’s sustained gains since mid-2026 reflect voter shifts away from Labor after 12 years in office, while smaller parties and minor groups remain well behind in every published survey. The September RedBridge and Resolve polls reinforced this positioning with minimal movement from prior months.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
交易量
$20,841結束日期
2026-11-28市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETThe 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent statewide polling for the November 28 Victorian election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Coalition leading on 28-32 percent, One Nation close behind on 22-25 percent, Labor on 23-25 percent, and the Greens on 12-15 percent. This three-way contest among the larger parties has elevated One Nation’s implied probability of finishing third, as major parties are expected to occupy the top two spots under preferential voting across 88 Legislative Assembly districts. One Nation’s sustained gains since mid-2026 reflect voter shifts away from Labor after 12 years in office, while smaller parties and minor groups remain well behind in every published survey. The September RedBridge and Resolve polls reinforced this positioning with minimal movement from prior months.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
交易量
$20,841結束日期
2026-11-28市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRecent statewide polling for the November 28 Victorian election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Coalition leading on 28-32 percent, One Nation close behind on 22-25 percent, Labor on 23-25 percent, and the Greens on 12-15 percent. This three-way contest among the larger parties has elevated One Nation’s implied probability of finishing third, as major parties are expected to occupy the top two spots under preferential voting across 88 Legislative Assembly districts. One Nation’s sustained gains since mid-2026 reflect voter shifts away from Labor after 12 years in office, while smaller parties and minor groups remain well behind in every published survey. The September RedBridge and Resolve polls reinforced this positioning with minimal movement from prior months.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions