Trader consensus at 98% against resignation before 2027 reflects the absence of any public statement, health crisis, or institutional mechanism—such as sustained 25th Amendment action—indicating Donald Trump intends to leave office early in his second term. Recent 2026 midterm results have shifted congressional control, exposing the administration to expanded Democratic oversight and potential investigations, yet Trump has signaled continued engagement in party matters and succession planning rather than withdrawal. Age-related health scrutiny and polling on fitness have persisted without triggering formal incapacity proceedings or party pressure sufficient to alter his position. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a documented medical event requiring transfer of power, successful congressional invocation of constitutional removal processes, or an unexpected negotiated exit tied to legal protections.