Tensions stemming from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 remarks on a potential Taiwan contingency have kept bilateral relations at their lowest point since 1972, prompting Beijing to limit high-level engagement at the upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen. Japan has sought assurances of standard diplomatic protocol, including at least a brief handshake, while Chinese sources indicate no formal bilateral meeting is planned and any greeting would likely follow minimal courtesies extended to other leaders. Traders therefore price the 2–6 second range highest, reflecting expectations of a perfunctory encounter shaped by protocol rather than warmth, with shorter or no-contact outcomes remaining viable if Beijing adheres to a harder line or limits images domestically. The November 18–19 timeline keeps these probabilities fluid until the event occurs.