Strained Japan-China diplomatic ties, rooted in Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 parliamentary remarks framing a Taiwan contingency as a potential “survival-threatening situation” warranting collective self-defense, continue to shape prospects for a Xi Jinping-Takaichi bilateral meeting. Beijing has maintained a hardline posture, rejecting formal talks and demanding retraction while limiting engagement to lower-level channels. The immediate focus is the November 18-19 APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen, where Japan seeks at least protocol-level courtesies such as a handshake but faces reports that Takaichi could be the only major participant without a Xi meeting. Incremental business and parliamentary contacts have occurred, yet no substantive thaw has materialized, leaving trader consensus centered on the low probability of a formal summit before year-end absent a shift in Beijing’s conditions or last-minute diplomatic maneuvering.