Japan-China diplomatic ties remain strained by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 parliamentary remarks linking a Taiwan contingency to Japan’s potential exercise of collective self-defense, prompting Beijing to demand a retraction and impose retaliatory measures including rare-earth export curbs and tourism advisories. No formal bilateral summit has occurred since the leaders’ October 2025 encounter on the sidelines of APEC in South Korea. As the November 18-19 APEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen approaches, Japanese officials are seeking assurances of at least protocol-level courtesies such as a handshake, while diplomatic sources indicate a full Xi-Takaichi bilateral remains unlikely amid China’s unchanged hardline posture. These dynamics shape trader assessments of near-term meeting prospects ahead of the summit window.