The high implied probability against a coup attempt in China before 2027 reflects the Chinese Communist Party's entrenched centralized control, extensive internal security apparatus, and demonstrated military loyalty to top leadership. Recent leadership consolidations and personnel alignments within the People's Liberation Army have shown no signs of elite fractures or organized dissent capable of challenging authority. Historical patterns of stability under the current system, reinforced by surveillance and party discipline, further underpin trader assessments. While unforeseen events such as acute economic shocks, leadership health developments, or external crises could theoretically create openings for instability, these remain low-probability scenarios unlikely to trigger a coup within the remaining timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$153,752 交易量
$153,752 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$153,752 交易量
$153,752 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability against a coup attempt in China before 2027 reflects the Chinese Communist Party's entrenched centralized control, extensive internal security apparatus, and demonstrated military loyalty to top leadership. Recent leadership consolidations and personnel alignments within the People's Liberation Army have shown no signs of elite fractures or organized dissent capable of challenging authority. Historical patterns of stability under the current system, reinforced by surveillance and party discipline, further underpin trader assessments. While unforeseen events such as acute economic shocks, leadership health developments, or external crises could theoretically create openings for instability, these remain low-probability scenarios unlikely to trigger a coup within the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$153,752結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability against a coup attempt in China before 2027 reflects the Chinese Communist Party's entrenched centralized control, extensive internal security apparatus, and demonstrated military loyalty to top leadership. Recent leadership consolidations and personnel alignments within the People's Liberation Army have shown no signs of elite fractures or organized dissent capable of challenging authority. Historical patterns of stability under the current system, reinforced by surveillance and party discipline, further underpin trader assessments. While unforeseen events such as acute economic shocks, leadership health developments, or external crises could theoretically create openings for instability, these remain low-probability scenarios unlikely to trigger a coup within the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$153,752結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability against a coup attempt in China before 2027 reflects the Chinese Communist Party's entrenched centralized control, extensive internal security apparatus, and demonstrated military loyalty to top leadership. Recent leadership consolidations and personnel alignments within the People's Liberation Army have shown no signs of elite fractures or organized dissent capable of challenging authority. Historical patterns of stability under the current system, reinforced by surveillance and party discipline, further underpin trader assessments. While unforeseen events such as acute economic shocks, leadership health developments, or external crises could theoretically create openings for instability, these remain low-probability scenarios unlikely to trigger a coup within the remaining timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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