Xi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army drives the 96.4% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Repeated high-level military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other CMC figures, have further centralized authority and eliminated potential rival power centers rather than signaling instability. Tight party discipline, pervasive surveillance, and the absence of organized opposition or visible elite fractures reinforce systemic barriers to coordinated action. Economic pressures and policy continuity challenges exist but have not translated into political challenges. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden leadership health events, major unforeseen scandals, or external shocks that fracture elite cohesion, though these remain low-probability within the timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$153,752 交易量
$153,752 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$153,752 交易量
$153,752 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army drives the 96.4% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Repeated high-level military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other CMC figures, have further centralized authority and eliminated potential rival power centers rather than signaling instability. Tight party discipline, pervasive surveillance, and the absence of organized opposition or visible elite fractures reinforce systemic barriers to coordinated action. Economic pressures and policy continuity challenges exist but have not translated into political challenges. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden leadership health events, major unforeseen scandals, or external shocks that fracture elite cohesion, though these remain low-probability within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$153,752結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army drives the 96.4% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Repeated high-level military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other CMC figures, have further centralized authority and eliminated potential rival power centers rather than signaling instability. Tight party discipline, pervasive surveillance, and the absence of organized opposition or visible elite fractures reinforce systemic barriers to coordinated action. Economic pressures and policy continuity challenges exist but have not translated into political challenges. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden leadership health events, major unforeseen scandals, or external shocks that fracture elite cohesion, though these remain low-probability within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$153,752結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army drives the 96.4% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Repeated high-level military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other CMC figures, have further centralized authority and eliminated potential rival power centers rather than signaling instability. Tight party discipline, pervasive surveillance, and the absence of organized opposition or visible elite fractures reinforce systemic barriers to coordinated action. Economic pressures and policy continuity challenges exist but have not translated into political challenges. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden leadership health events, major unforeseen scandals, or external shocks that fracture elite cohesion, though these remain low-probability within the timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions