Netanyahu faces an October 27 election that functions as a referendum on his leadership after the October 2023 attacks, with polls showing his Likud bloc trailing and limited coalition options that could force him from office by year-end. Sánchez triggered a November 29 snap election following parliamentary defeats on housing measures amid protests and migration pressures, leaving his minority government vulnerable to opposition gains. These near-term votes explain their elevated trader-implied probabilities relative to other listed figures. Broader stability for most remaining leaders, combined with longer constitutional terms or stronger parliamentary positions, supports the leading "none before 2027" outcome at 38.5 percent as the current consensus assessment of political risk through the end of 2026.