Nicolás Maduro maintains a dominant 85% market share for Venezuela’s leadership at the end of 2026, reflecting trader consensus on Chavista institutional continuity and the armed forces’ backing of the ruling structure despite the January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured him. Delcy Rodríguez, installed as acting president by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice shortly after the raid, holds the next-highest probability at 9.5%, consistent with her interim role and ongoing negotiations with Washington over sanctions relief and oil policy. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain at low single-digit or fractional odds, underscoring barriers to a swift electoral transition amid the absence of scheduled presidential voting and the current government’s focus on stability. Recent diplomatic engagement between the interim administration and the Trump White House has not yet altered these probabilities significantly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於委內瑞拉領導人2026年底？
委內瑞拉領導人2026年底？
尼古拉斯·馬杜羅 85.8%
德爾西·羅德里格斯 10%
瑪麗亞·科琳娜·馬查多 2.0%
沒有國家元首 1.2%
$95,772,106 交易量
$95,772,106 交易量
2026-12-30
尼古拉斯·馬杜羅
86%
德爾西·羅德里格斯
10%
瑪麗亞·科琳娜·馬查多
2%
沒有國家元首
1%
埃德蒙多·岡薩雷斯
<1%
迪奧斯達多·卡貝羅·隆東
<1%
弗拉迪米爾·帕德里諾·洛佩斯
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
伊凡·佩圖斯
<1%
唐納·川普
<1%
馬可·魯比歐
<1%
彼特·黑格塞斯
<1%
弗蘭克·多諾萬
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
理查·格雷內爾
<1%
尼古拉斯·馬杜羅 85.8%
德爾西·羅德里格斯 10%
瑪麗亞·科琳娜·馬查多 2.0%
沒有國家元首 1.2%
$95,772,106 交易量
$95,772,106 交易量
2026-12-30
尼古拉斯·馬杜羅
$2,777,832 交易量
86%
德爾西·羅德里格斯
$1,767,820 交易量
10%
瑪麗亞·科琳娜·馬查多
$1,445,392 交易量
2%
沒有國家元首
$1,514,961 交易量
1%
埃德蒙多·岡薩雷斯
$1,214,437 交易量
<1%
迪奧斯達多·卡貝羅·隆東
$2,088,882 交易量
<1%
弗拉迪米爾·帕德里諾·洛佩斯
$816,853 交易量
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,163,795 交易量
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,976,957 交易量
<1%
伊凡·佩圖斯
$5,634,435 交易量
<1%
唐納·川普
$1,123,985 交易量
<1%
馬可·魯比歐
$1,403,496 交易量
<1%
彼特·黑格塞斯
$9,176,865 交易量
<1%
弗蘭克·多諾萬
$25,801,910 交易量
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,113,079 交易量
<1%
理查·格雷內爾
$32,751,408 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro maintains a dominant 85% market share for Venezuela’s leadership at the end of 2026, reflecting trader consensus on Chavista institutional continuity and the armed forces’ backing of the ruling structure despite the January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured him. Delcy Rodríguez, installed as acting president by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice shortly after the raid, holds the next-highest probability at 9.5%, consistent with her interim role and ongoing negotiations with Washington over sanctions relief and oil policy. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain at low single-digit or fractional odds, underscoring barriers to a swift electoral transition amid the absence of scheduled presidential voting and the current government’s focus on stability. Recent diplomatic engagement between the interim administration and the Trump White House has not yet altered these probabilities significantly.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
市場開放時間： Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
交易量
$95,772,106結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro maintains a dominant 85% market share for Venezuela’s leadership at the end of 2026, reflecting trader consensus on Chavista institutional continuity and the armed forces’ backing of the ruling structure despite the January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured him. Delcy Rodríguez, installed as acting president by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice shortly after the raid, holds the next-highest probability at 9.5%, consistent with her interim role and ongoing negotiations with Washington over sanctions relief and oil policy. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain at low single-digit or fractional odds, underscoring barriers to a swift electoral transition amid the absence of scheduled presidential voting and the current government’s focus on stability. Recent diplomatic engagement between the interim administration and the Trump White House has not yet altered these probabilities significantly.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
交易量
$95,772,106結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro maintains a dominant 85% market share for Venezuela’s leadership at the end of 2026, reflecting trader consensus on Chavista institutional continuity and the armed forces’ backing of the ruling structure despite the January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured him. Delcy Rodríguez, installed as acting president by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice shortly after the raid, holds the next-highest probability at 9.5%, consistent with her interim role and ongoing negotiations with Washington over sanctions relief and oil policy. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain at low single-digit or fractional odds, underscoring barriers to a swift electoral transition amid the absence of scheduled presidential voting and the current government’s focus on stability. Recent diplomatic engagement between the interim administration and the Trump White House has not yet altered these probabilities significantly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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