Traders assign a 98.1% implied probability that China will not blockade Taiwan in 2026, driven by the absence of any shift from recent military signaling to actual enforcement measures. Early November saw China conduct large, unannounced naval drills involving over 100 vessels from multiple theater commands, including the Liaoning carrier group, which Taiwan described as area-denial rehearsals around the island and into the western Pacific. Beijing framed these as routine training, while President Xi Jinping publicly stressed peaceful reunification without referencing force. Ongoing gray-zone patrols and G7 statements on regional stability have not produced port closures, quarantines, or commercial traffic halts. The trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game evaluation that economic interdependence, multilateral diplomacy, and lack of sustained preparations make a full blockade improbable before year-end. Late developments such as incidents during the APEC summit or abrupt policy changes could still alter the outlook.