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Geopolitics·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te impeached by...?

icon for Lai Ching-te impeached by...?
Geopolitics·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te impeached by...?

12月 31

12月 31

$1,358,695 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$1,358,695 交易量

Polymarket

$1,358,695 交易量

<1%

December 31

$0 交易量

45%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's opposition parties launched impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te in late 2025 over disputes involving revenue allocation legislation, but the Legislative Yuan's May 19, 2026, vote fell short of the required two-thirds supermajority with only 56 votes in favor. This constitutional threshold must be cleared before any case advances to the Constitutional Court for review. With the June 30 deadline now just days away and no new legislative motion underway, traders see negligible prospects for completion of the multi-step process. The opposition's seat shortfall and the compressed timeline reinforce the near-certain "No" pricing. Late developments such as an unprecedented emergency session or procedural reinterpretation remain theoretically possible yet face prohibitive barriers given institutional requirements and current legislative arithmetic.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$1,358,695
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's opposition parties launched impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te in late 2025 over disputes involving revenue allocation legislation, but the Legislative Yuan's May 19, 2026, vote fell short of the required two-thirds supermajority with only 56 votes in favor. This constitutional threshold must be cleared before any case advances to the Constitutional Court for review. With the June 30 deadline now just days away and no new legislative motion underway, traders see negligible prospects for completion of the multi-step process. The opposition's seat shortfall and the compressed timeline reinforce the near-certain "No" pricing. Late developments such as an unprecedented emergency session or procedural reinterpretation remain theoretically possible yet face prohibitive barriers given institutional requirements and current legislative arithmetic.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$1,358,695
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lai Ching-te impeached by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 45%, followed by "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lai Ching-te impeached by...?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lai Ching-te impeached by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lai Ching-te impeached by...?" is "December 31" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lai Ching-te impeached by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.