Republican control of the House through the 2026 midterms creates the primary structural barrier, as impeachment requires a majority vote that the current GOP majority has shown no inclination to pursue. Scattered Democratic resolutions have been tabled without broad support, and Senate conviction demands a two-thirds supermajority that remains improbable under existing partisan alignment. Trader consensus at 98.3% for no impeachment by year-end reflects these institutional thresholds and calendar constraints. Late developments such as an unexpected midterm reversal delivering Democratic House control, major scandals prompting bipartisan action, or significant shifts in Senate composition could still compress timelines, though historical patterns of partisan voting make such outcomes low-probability catalysts within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,002,205 交易量
$1,002,205 交易量
是
$1,002,205 交易量
$1,002,205 交易量
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Republican control of the House through the 2026 midterms creates the primary structural barrier, as impeachment requires a majority vote that the current GOP majority has shown no inclination to pursue. Scattered Democratic resolutions have been tabled without broad support, and Senate conviction demands a two-thirds supermajority that remains improbable under existing partisan alignment. Trader consensus at 98.3% for no impeachment by year-end reflects these institutional thresholds and calendar constraints. Late developments such as an unexpected midterm reversal delivering Democratic House control, major scandals prompting bipartisan action, or significant shifts in Senate composition could still compress timelines, though historical patterns of partisan voting make such outcomes low-probability catalysts within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions