Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have kept impeachment proceedings off the agenda since the 2024 election, producing the current 98% trader consensus against removal by the end of 2026. House leadership has shown no appetite for articles of impeachment absent broad bipartisan support, while Senate rules require a two-thirds vote for conviction that remains structurally difficult under divided partisan lines. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could alter House control and reopen procedural pathways, yet historical patterns show even opposition-led impeachments rarely advance to Senate conviction. Late-breaking scandals, special-counsel findings, or sustained bipartisan defections remain the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities before the December 31 resolution date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,003,164 交易量
$1,003,164 交易量
是
$1,003,164 交易量
$1,003,164 交易量
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have kept impeachment proceedings off the agenda since the 2024 election, producing the current 98% trader consensus against removal by the end of 2026. House leadership has shown no appetite for articles of impeachment absent broad bipartisan support, while Senate rules require a two-thirds vote for conviction that remains structurally difficult under divided partisan lines. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could alter House control and reopen procedural pathways, yet historical patterns show even opposition-led impeachments rarely advance to Senate conviction. Late-breaking scandals, special-counsel findings, or sustained bipartisan defections remain the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities before the December 31 resolution date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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