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icon for 聯邦資本利得稅在2026年之前被削減？
經濟艙·稅費

聯邦資本利得稅在2026年之前被削減？

icon for 聯邦資本利得稅在2026年之前被削減？
經濟艙·稅費

聯邦資本利得稅在2026年之前被削減？

是

18% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

18% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of Congress and the White House has produced multiple proposals to lower or index federal capital gains rates, including legislation from Sen. Ted Cruz and executive-action ideas floated in 2025–2026. However, none have advanced to enactment. The 2025 reconciliation bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) extended and modified many 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions on ordinary income rates, the SALT deduction, and other items, yet left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure with only inflation-adjusted brackets for 2026. Ongoing debates over inflation indexing and targeted home-sale exclusions remain stalled in committee or face legal hurdles, leaving no confirmed legislative or regulatory change that would reduce the rates before year-end. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that the rates will stay unchanged through 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$95
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of Congress and the White House has produced multiple proposals to lower or index federal capital gains rates, including legislation from Sen. Ted Cruz and executive-action ideas floated in 2025–2026. However, none have advanced to enactment. The 2025 reconciliation bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) extended and modified many 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions on ordinary income rates, the SALT deduction, and other items, yet left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure with only inflation-adjusted brackets for 2026. Ongoing debates over inflation indexing and targeted home-sale exclusions remain stalled in committee or face legal hurdles, leaving no confirmed legislative or regulatory change that would reduce the rates before year-end. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that the rates will stay unchanged through 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$95
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"聯邦資本利得稅在2026年之前被削減？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "聯邦資本利得稅會在2026年前被削減嗎？" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"聯邦資本利得稅在2026年之前被削減？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "聯邦資本利得稅在2026年之前被削減？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "聯邦資本利得稅在2026年之前被削減？" is "聯邦資本利得稅會在2026年前被削減嗎？" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "聯邦資本利得稅在2026年之前被削減？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.