Recent discussions within the Trump administration have centered on potential capital gains adjustments, including indexing gains for inflation or expanding the primary residence exclusion, as part of efforts to appeal to voters ahead of the November 2026 midterms. However, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in 2025 left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0/15/20 percent, and congressional leaders have signaled insufficient time or consensus for major rate reductions before the elections. With few legislative days remaining and competing fiscal priorities, including debt concerns, the window for passage has narrowed sharply. Traders assign an 86 percent implied probability to no cut before 2027 because any changes would require sustained Republican majorities and prioritized floor action that has not materialized, though lame-duck opportunities or post-midterm shifts could still alter the timeline.