Democrats hold a strong position in forecasts for the November 2026 House elections, with models assigning them roughly five-in-six odds of securing a majority in the chamber that convenes in January 2027. This outlook, combined with polling showing 52-55% public support for impeachment proceedings and multiple Democratic members already advancing articles in 2025, underpins the 62% trader-implied probability that articles will pass before January 2029. Republicans currently maintain a narrow majority, limiting immediate action, yet the midterm dynamic creates a clear pathway for the incoming Congress to pursue formal charges. Market pricing incorporates these electoral and polling signals while recognizing that Senate conviction remains a separate, higher threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
62% 機率
$89,034 交易量
$89,034 交易量
2029-01-20
是
62% 機率
$89,034 交易量
$89,034 交易量
2029-01-20
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats hold a strong position in forecasts for the November 2026 House elections, with models assigning them roughly five-in-six odds of securing a majority in the chamber that convenes in January 2027. This outlook, combined with polling showing 52-55% public support for impeachment proceedings and multiple Democratic members already advancing articles in 2025, underpins the 62% trader-implied probability that articles will pass before January 2029. Republicans currently maintain a narrow majority, limiting immediate action, yet the midterm dynamic creates a clear pathway for the incoming Congress to pursue formal charges. Market pricing incorporates these electoral and polling signals while recognizing that Senate conviction remains a separate, higher threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$89,034結束日期
2029-01-20市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats hold a strong position in forecasts for the November 2026 House elections, with models assigning them roughly five-in-six odds of securing a majority in the chamber that convenes in January 2027. This outlook, combined with polling showing 52-55% public support for impeachment proceedings and multiple Democratic members already advancing articles in 2025, underpins the 62% trader-implied probability that articles will pass before January 2029. Republicans currently maintain a narrow majority, limiting immediate action, yet the midterm dynamic creates a clear pathway for the incoming Congress to pursue formal charges. Market pricing incorporates these electoral and polling signals while recognizing that Senate conviction remains a separate, higher threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
交易量
$89,034結束日期
2029-01-20市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats hold a strong position in forecasts for the November 2026 House elections, with models assigning them roughly five-in-six odds of securing a majority in the chamber that convenes in January 2027. This outlook, combined with polling showing 52-55% public support for impeachment proceedings and multiple Democratic members already advancing articles in 2025, underpins the 62% trader-implied probability that articles will pass before January 2029. Republicans currently maintain a narrow majority, limiting immediate action, yet the midterm dynamic creates a clear pathway for the incoming Congress to pursue formal charges. Market pricing incorporates these electoral and polling signals while recognizing that Senate conviction remains a separate, higher threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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