Recent trilateral technical talks in Abu Dhabi produced agreement in principle on a large-scale prisoner exchange but exposed persistent gaps on territory and postwar security guarantees, with Russian positions rejecting compromises such as demilitarized zones or foreign troops. These November 2026 negotiations, the first direct US-mediated contacts in nine months, remain at the advisor level and have not advanced conditions for a Zelenskyy-Putin summit. Trader consensus on no leader meeting before 2027 aligns with the limited momentum and structural barriers to direct engagement, though further progress on ceasefires or European involvement in subsequent rounds could alter timelines if core disputes narrow before year-end.