China’s recent unannounced naval drills involving over 100 vessels in the western Pacific, which Taiwanese officials described as area-denial exercises and “silent intimidation” ahead of the APEC summit, represent the latest in sustained military signaling rather than preparations for immediate invasion. Beijing continues to emphasize peaceful reunification in official statements, including Xi Jinping’s November remarks, while maintaining routine aircraft and vessel activity around Taiwan. Traders assign a 96.5% probability to no invasion by June 2027 due to the absence of mobilization indicators, high logistical and economic barriers, and deterrence dynamics involving U.S. commitments and regional alliances. Potential shifts could still arise from rapid escalation during ongoing drills, diplomatic breakdowns at upcoming summits, or unforeseen incidents that alter risk calculations.