US intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, indicate China has no fixed timetable or current commitment to invade Taiwan by 2027, shifting focus from earlier 2027 modernization benchmarks. Ongoing US arms sales, military cooperation with Taiwan, and strategic ambiguity continue to raise the anticipated costs of any cross-Strait military action. Diplomatic channels between Washington and Beijing remain active amid broader economic interdependence, with no major new escalations or coercive moves in the Taiwan Strait reported through mid-2026. Traders price these deterrence factors and absence of imminent triggers as supporting low near-term invasion odds through the June 2027 resolution window.