**Recent reports indicate Apple has tested CXMT DRAM across iPhones and MacBooks while holding preliminary talks focused on devices sold in China, driven by an AI-fueled memory shortage.** However, CXMT remains on U.S. blacklists over national security concerns tied to its Chinese government and military links, requiring White House or agency approval that has not been secured. Apple continues lobbying efforts, but any deal faces political backlash, reputational risks, and restrictions limiting use to the domestic Chinese market rather than global supply chains. These regulatory and geopolitical hurdles—compounded by established relationships with Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability of no purchase in 2026. Traders appear to view current testing and talks as exploratory steps unlikely to overcome approval barriers or expand meaningfully before year-end, despite supply pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include further regulatory decisions or any public confirmation of scaled sourcing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
20% 機率
$15,484 交易量
$15,484 交易量
2026-12-31
是
20% 機率
$15,484 交易量
$15,484 交易量
2026-12-31
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Recent reports indicate Apple has tested CXMT DRAM across iPhones and MacBooks while holding preliminary talks focused on devices sold in China, driven by an AI-fueled memory shortage.** However, CXMT remains on U.S. blacklists over national security concerns tied to its Chinese government and military links, requiring White House or agency approval that has not been secured. Apple continues lobbying efforts, but any deal faces political backlash, reputational risks, and restrictions limiting use to the domestic Chinese market rather than global supply chains.
These regulatory and geopolitical hurdles—compounded by established relationships with Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability of no purchase in 2026. Traders appear to view current testing and talks as exploratory steps unlikely to overcome approval barriers or expand meaningfully before year-end, despite supply pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include further regulatory decisions or any public confirmation of scaled sourcing.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
交易量
$15,484結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Recent reports indicate Apple has tested CXMT DRAM across iPhones and MacBooks while holding preliminary talks focused on devices sold in China, driven by an AI-fueled memory shortage.** However, CXMT remains on U.S. blacklists over national security concerns tied to its Chinese government and military links, requiring White House or agency approval that has not been secured. Apple continues lobbying efforts, but any deal faces political backlash, reputational risks, and restrictions limiting use to the domestic Chinese market rather than global supply chains.
These regulatory and geopolitical hurdles—compounded by established relationships with Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability of no purchase in 2026. Traders appear to view current testing and talks as exploratory steps unlikely to overcome approval barriers or expand meaningfully before year-end, despite supply pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include further regulatory decisions or any public confirmation of scaled sourcing.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$15,484結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent reports indicate Apple has tested CXMT DRAM across iPhones and MacBooks while holding preliminary talks focused on devices sold in China, driven by an AI-fueled memory shortage.** However, CXMT remains on U.S. blacklists over national security concerns tied to its Chinese government and military links, requiring White House or agency approval that has not been secured. Apple continues lobbying efforts, but any deal faces political backlash, reputational risks, and restrictions limiting use to the domestic Chinese market rather than global supply chains. These regulatory and geopolitical hurdles—compounded by established relationships with Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability of no purchase in 2026. Traders appear to view current testing and talks as exploratory steps unlikely to overcome approval barriers or expand meaningfully before year-end, despite supply pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include further regulatory decisions or any public confirmation of scaled sourcing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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