Recent U.S. intelligence assessments and the May 2026 Beijing summit between Presidents Trump and Xi have reinforced trader expectations that China lacks a fixed timeline or immediate intent for military action across the Taiwan Strait. Ongoing gray-zone patrols and PLA modernization continue without crossing into overt invasion preparations, while Taiwan's expanded defense spending and U.S. arms support maintain deterrence. High implied probability for no invasion by September 30 reflects the absence of verifiable escalation signals in recent weeks. Late developments such as an abrupt blockade, diplomatic breakdown, or unanticipated leadership decision could still shift the outlook before the resolution date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$525,899 交易量
$525,899 交易量
2026-09-30
是
$525,899 交易量
$525,899 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S. intelligence assessments and the May 2026 Beijing summit between Presidents Trump and Xi have reinforced trader expectations that China lacks a fixed timeline or immediate intent for military action across the Taiwan Strait. Ongoing gray-zone patrols and PLA modernization continue without crossing into overt invasion preparations, while Taiwan's expanded defense spending and U.S. arms support maintain deterrence. High implied probability for no invasion by September 30 reflects the absence of verifiable escalation signals in recent weeks. Late developments such as an abrupt blockade, diplomatic breakdown, or unanticipated leadership decision could still shift the outlook before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
交易量
$525,899結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S. intelligence assessments and the May 2026 Beijing summit between Presidents Trump and Xi have reinforced trader expectations that China lacks a fixed timeline or immediate intent for military action across the Taiwan Strait. Ongoing gray-zone patrols and PLA modernization continue without crossing into overt invasion preparations, while Taiwan's expanded defense spending and U.S. arms support maintain deterrence. High implied probability for no invasion by September 30 reflects the absence of verifiable escalation signals in recent weeks. Late developments such as an abrupt blockade, diplomatic breakdown, or unanticipated leadership decision could still shift the outlook before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$525,899結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. intelligence assessments and the May 2026 Beijing summit between Presidents Trump and Xi have reinforced trader expectations that China lacks a fixed timeline or immediate intent for military action across the Taiwan Strait. Ongoing gray-zone patrols and PLA modernization continue without crossing into overt invasion preparations, while Taiwan's expanded defense spending and U.S. arms support maintain deterrence. High implied probability for no invasion by September 30 reflects the absence of verifiable escalation signals in recent weeks. Late developments such as an abrupt blockade, diplomatic breakdown, or unanticipated leadership decision could still shift the outlook before the resolution date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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