Recent August data highlighting resilient industrial output at 5.2% year-over-year amid AI-driven exports, contrasted with weak retail sales at 0.4% and sharply declining fixed-asset investment, have anchored trader expectations for China Q3 2026 GDP growth near the lower end of the 4.5-5.0% annual target. Following Q2's 4.3% reading, persistent domestic demand softness and property sector drag outweigh external support, creating tight implied probabilities between the 4.0-4.3% and 4.3-4.6% buckets. Markets price in modest additional fiscal stimulus ahead of the mid-October release, though policy transmission remains incremental amid broader economic imbalances.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4.3-4.6% 35%
4.0-4.3% 26.7%
4.6-4.9% 20%
3.7-4.0% 10.8%
$45,600 交易量
$45,600 交易量
2026-10-19
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
1%
3.7-4.0%
11%
4.0-4.3%
27%
4.3-4.6%
35%
4.6-4.9%
20%
4.9-5.2%
1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 35%
4.0-4.3% 26.7%
4.6-4.9% 20%
3.7-4.0% 10.8%
$45,600 交易量
$45,600 交易量
2026-10-19
<3.4%
$1,624 交易量
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$929 交易量
1%
3.7-4.0%
$2,268 交易量
11%
4.0-4.3%
$5,198 交易量
27%
4.3-4.6%
$16,789 交易量
35%
4.6-4.9%
$11,043 交易量
20%
4.9-5.2%
$4,240 交易量
1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,866 交易量
<1%
5.5%+
$1,643 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent August data highlighting resilient industrial output at 5.2% year-over-year amid AI-driven exports, contrasted with weak retail sales at 0.4% and sharply declining fixed-asset investment, have anchored trader expectations for China Q3 2026 GDP growth near the lower end of the 4.5-5.0% annual target. Following Q2's 4.3% reading, persistent domestic demand softness and property sector drag outweigh external support, creating tight implied probabilities between the 4.0-4.3% and 4.3-4.6% buckets. Markets price in modest additional fiscal stimulus ahead of the mid-October release, though policy transmission remains incremental amid broader economic imbalances.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
市場開放時間： Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
交易量
$45,600結束日期
2026-10-21市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETThis market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent August data highlighting resilient industrial output at 5.2% year-over-year amid AI-driven exports, contrasted with weak retail sales at 0.4% and sharply declining fixed-asset investment, have anchored trader expectations for China Q3 2026 GDP growth near the lower end of the 4.5-5.0% annual target. Following Q2's 4.3% reading, persistent domestic demand softness and property sector drag outweigh external support, creating tight implied probabilities between the 4.0-4.3% and 4.3-4.6% buckets. Markets price in modest additional fiscal stimulus ahead of the mid-October release, though policy transmission remains incremental amid broader economic imbalances.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
交易量
$45,600結束日期
2026-10-21市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETRecent August data highlighting resilient industrial output at 5.2% year-over-year amid AI-driven exports, contrasted with weak retail sales at 0.4% and sharply declining fixed-asset investment, have anchored trader expectations for China Q3 2026 GDP growth near the lower end of the 4.5-5.0% annual target. Following Q2's 4.3% reading, persistent domestic demand softness and property sector drag outweigh external support, creating tight implied probabilities between the 4.0-4.3% and 4.3-4.6% buckets. Markets price in modest additional fiscal stimulus ahead of the mid-October release, though policy transmission remains incremental amid broader economic imbalances.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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