Strong consensus among forecasters for positive U.S. real GDP growth around 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent data show annualized gains of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by resilient business investment tied to AI-driven productivity, steady consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds, even as government outlays and some exports softened. Labor market conditions remain consistent with expansion rather than recession, with unemployment near 4.3–4.5% and low implied recession odds of 20–30%. Tail risks include sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions, abrupt policy shifts, or an unexpected collapse in capex that could tip quarterly readings negative enough to produce full-year contraction.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$32,234 交易量
$32,234 交易量
2027-01-29
是
4% 機率
$32,234 交易量
$32,234 交易量
2027-01-29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus among forecasters for positive U.S. real GDP growth around 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent data show annualized gains of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by resilient business investment tied to AI-driven productivity, steady consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds, even as government outlays and some exports softened. Labor market conditions remain consistent with expansion rather than recession, with unemployment near 4.3–4.5% and low implied recession odds of 20–30%. Tail risks include sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions, abrupt policy shifts, or an unexpected collapse in capex that could tip quarterly readings negative enough to produce full-year contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$32,234結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus among forecasters for positive U.S. real GDP growth around 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent data show annualized gains of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by resilient business investment tied to AI-driven productivity, steady consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds, even as government outlays and some exports softened. Labor market conditions remain consistent with expansion rather than recession, with unemployment near 4.3–4.5% and low implied recession odds of 20–30%. Tail risks include sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions, abrupt policy shifts, or an unexpected collapse in capex that could tip quarterly readings negative enough to produce full-year contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
交易量
$32,234結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus among forecasters for positive U.S. real GDP growth around 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent data show annualized gains of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by resilient business investment tied to AI-driven productivity, steady consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds, even as government outlays and some exports softened. Labor market conditions remain consistent with expansion rather than recession, with unemployment near 4.3–4.5% and low implied recession odds of 20–30%. Tail risks include sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions, abrupt policy shifts, or an unexpected collapse in capex that could tip quarterly readings negative enough to produce full-year contraction.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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